New course for restaurants: Analytics predict seasonal demand, limit food waste

A pie chart of a food bowl on Project Hum’s upcoming winter menu—set to launch next week—offers telling insights into the restaurant’s approach to food waste. This season leans heavier on carbs and protein—meats and millets—whereas summer favoured lighter, plant-based fibre.

The fast-casual, farm-to-table restaurant doesn’t just rotate its ingredients with the seasons, it also adjusts portion sizes to match appetites that wax and wane with the weather. “As we tracked plate returns, we realised that people consumed larger portions in winter than in summer,” says Jatin Talreja, one of the restaurant’s three founders.By mapping consumption patterns, Project Hum has been able to fine-tune its menus and plating, cutting down on plate waste, which by some estimates accounts for nearly a third of all food waste in the food service industry.

"With practices like this, we reduced food waste at our outlets in Bandra and Versova to under 2%,” he says.

Project Hum is among a growing number of city restaurants bringing food waste close to zero by combining technology, circular practices, and a culture of mindful consumption. Waste KnotGlobally, a little over a quarter of all food waste originates from the food service sector. According to the UNEP Food Waste Index Report 2024, that’s about 290 million tonnes—out of the 1.05 billion tonnes of food wasted worldwide in 2022, with households accounting for nearly 60%.

Most of it ultimately ends up in landfills.Closer home, the BMC Environmental Statistics Report 2024–25 notes that 72.6% of Mumbai’s 6,300 metric tonnes of daily solid waste is food waste. The result is a triple whammy: an environmental, economic, and social crisis rolled into one. By cutting down, reusing, and redistributing surplus food, food service businesses are trying to address the problem at its source. The fixPredictive analytics is one solution. “We know in a week or on a weekend what will sell more, depending on festivals, the day of the week...Tuesdays, for instance, see less demand for non-veg,” says Gresham Fernandes, partner chef at Bandra Born. His kitchens respond accordingly: slow days are capped and festive weekends are scaled up, helping curb sudden surpluses. “At Bandra Born, we built a system to put up just ten portions a day,” he says.

“The number flexes with demand.” Some dishes are intentionally made to order to avoid prepping items that can’t be reused later. “You don’t have to prep for a masala omelette,” he points out. Others, like the crowd-favourite chicken puff, need more foresight.

“I’m not going to make 30 portions of chicken puff on a Monday, but I will on a Friday or Saturday.” Harajuku Cafe & Bakehouse in BKC relies on an AI-based predictive demand engine that uses historic sales data to set dynamic par levels for each product.

The system anticipates demand across different days, seasons, and locations, says co-founder Gaurav Kanwar.The Little Easy's cloud-based inventory system works a similar magic. “Once the recipes are fed into our system and aligned with expected sales, it automatically shows you what your consumption should be,” says founder Vishesh Shah. Now he knows where the food cost stands every week. The result is almost no waste.

On raw ingredients, wastage is “4 to 5% but not as much on prepped or cooked food,” he says. The other route is a rigorous waste audit. At Chaitanya and its kindred brand Nav Chaitanya, food wastage reports are generated daily across outlets. “Since we work extensively with perishable ingredients such as seafood and fresh coconut, monitoring waste is essential," says Mitra Walke, Founder, Nav Chaitanya, which is known for its Malvani seafood.

Their audits reveal that most wastage occurs from pre-cooked items “like sol kadhi and cut salads, particularly during the last dinner service slot.

” Over-ordering is part of the problem. “Guests often order more than they can consume, sometimes for variety or presentation on social media. And leftovers aren’t taken home as frequently as before.” However, batch-cooking and portion control help maintain low waste levels—curry batches are prepared five to six times a day, while fresh fish is procured three times a day to prevent overstocking.Project Hum sets waste-reduction targets prior to the development of each of its four seasonal menus, driving its chefs to be inventive with ingredients. “For instance, coriander stems that are usually thrown away will be used for broth.” says Talreja. Repurposing is becoming a daily habit for most. Fernandes turns his leftovers into snacks and sauces. Baldiwala turns potato peels into staff-time “snack experiments.”

“I encourage them to create something from nothing,” Prathik says, and even at the bar “leftover trimmings are used for cocktail garnishes or dust.” Every scrap in the kitchen is given a second life, including peels and rinds. “Everything at Bandra Born goes through a circular economy. Peels are used to make powders…lemon rinds are used for making black lime puree.” What little remains goes straight to the people who make the place run.

“If we don’t sell, the staff can buy produce and take it home, and we give it to them at cost.” Third-Party Solutions (and Problems) A year ago, food delivery platform Zomato jumped on the zero-waste bandwagon by launching Food Rescue, an initiative aimed at ‘rescuing’ the 4 lakh cancelled orders it encounters a month across the country. Zomato triggers a pop-up on its app that offers steeply discounted cancelled orders within a 3km radius of the delivery partner bearing the order.

“To ensure freshness, the option to claim is only available for a few minutes,” wrote a Zomato spokesperson on email.

But when a customer in Delhi received a stale pizza through Food Rescue, the platform refused a refund despite photographic evidence. Swiggy, on the other hand, redistributes surplus restaurant food to underserved communities through its own initiative Swiggy Serves. However, president of Indian Association of Hotels and Restaurants, Sudhakar Shetty is not sure such initiatives will fly.

The Food Rescue programme, he says, “sounds good, but logistics may not add up. How can they put it on sale when the food is lying in the restaurant… and you don’t know for how long?” And food redistribution programmes, he feels, simply aren’t practical for most Mumbai restaurants. “By the time we close the restaurant, it is almost 12, 1 in the night… it is not possible that we can provide that food to someone.

” Holding it until the next day isn’t safe either. And quick-fix ideas like end-of-day discounts don’t fly.

“Because ultimately people will think your food is substandard.” His observation tallies with the Robin Hood Army’s experience redistributing food from restaurants. For 11 years, the non-profit has been channeling excess food from events, parties and restaurants to the hungry, but “in Mumbai, very little of our supply comes from restaurants” confirms Nidhi Sanghai, city representative. "In fact, we just have seven restaurant partners in the city. It’s been a challenge adding more to our network, because restaurants tell us they have little leftover at the end of the day.

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