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The Magadh region could change the fate of both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan (’Grand Alliance’) in the second phase of the Bihar Assembly election. Spread over the five districts of Jehanabad, Aurangabad, Gaya ji, Arwal, and Nawada, the region has 26 Assembly constituencies.
In the 2020 Assembly election, the Mahagathbandhan won 20 seats whereas the NDA could only win six seats in Magadh. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U) could not even win a single seat in four (Nawada, Jehanabad, Aurangabad, and Arwal) out of the five Magadh districts. In the fifth, Gaya Ji, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) saved face for the NDA.
Magadh, once a stronghold of the NDA, belied its expectations in the previous two Assembly elections. As the NDA faces the challenge of regaining lost turf, the Mahagathbandhan is going all outtomaintain its dominance for the third consecutive term.
Both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan have paid particular attention to Magadh this time, strategically changing candidates for several seats.
The NDA has also left some constituencies for the Lok Janshakti Party-Ram Vilas (LJP-RV) — Bodhgaya, Sherghati, Nawada, Govindpur, Makhdumpur, and Obra. The Chirag Paswan-led LJP-RV contested alone in 2020.
In the 2020 election, the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Prakash Veer won from the Rajauli Assembly constituency in Nawada district, but he has not been given a ticket by the party this time.
In another change, the RJD has fielded Suday Yadav, the sitting MLA of Jehanabad, from the Kurtha constituency in Arwal district. Rahul Sharma, son of veteran Bhumihar leader Jagdish Sharma, has been asked to contest from Jehanabad by the party; he was earlier associated with the JD(U) and HAMS.
The LJP (RV) is fielding Vimal Rajbanshi from Rajauli under the NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement.
The RJD MLA from Nawada, Vibha Devi, is now contesting as a JD(U) candidate.
Anil Singh is contesting again from Hisua on a BJP ticket, although he finished second in the last election. Sitting RJD MLA Mohammad Kamran, after being denied a ticket, is contesting as Independent from Govindpur in Nawadat. The RJD has instead fielded Purnima Yadav, who contested for the JD(U) in the last election.
Union Minister Jitam Ram Manjhi, who hails from Gaya Ji, is a prominent NDA leader in Magadh. The HAM(S) has announced candidates for five out of the six seats it secured in the seat sharing.
The NDA’s decision to give 11 out of the 26 seats in Magadh to the LJP(RV) and HAM(S) reflects its decision to bank on Scheduled Caste (SC) votes.
In the previous election, out of the 10 Assembly seats in Gaya Ji, the BJP won Gaya Town and Wazirganj. Mr. Manjhi’s HAM(S) won Imamganj, Barachatti, and Tekari whereas the RJD secured victory in Sherghati, Gurua, Bodhgaya, Belaganj, and Atri. The JD(U) failed to open its account, but it made a comeback by winning Belaganj in the 2024 byelection. Currently, the NDA holds six of the 10 seats in Gaya Ji.
In Gaya Ji district, the BJP, HAM (S), and JD(U) have two, three and one Assembly seat, respectively, whereas the RJD has four.
In Arwal, the RJD and the Communist Party of India Marxist-Leninist Liberation (CPI-ML-L) won one seat each. In Jehanabad, the RJD and CPI(ML-L) won two and one seats, respectively. In Aurangabad, the RJD and Congress shared four and two seats, respectively. In Nawada, the RJD won three, and the Congress and BJP won one seat each.
The RJD and its alliance partners are banking upon their core voters, the Muslim and Yadav communities, which dominate most of the rural areas in the Magadh region. This is the RJD’s traditional vote bank. Their numbers are particularly high in districts including Gaya Ji, Nawada, and Jehanabad, and in Gaya Town.
The JD(U) and BJP’s traditional voter base includes the Kurmi, Koeri, Brahmin, Bhumihar, and Rajput communities in Aurangabad, Jehanabad, Arwal, and Nawada.
There was a time in 2010 when the NDA won 24 out of 26 seats in Magadh. The RJD won only Belaganj, and one seat was won by an independent candidate. In 2010, the JD(U) won 16 seats and the BJP won eight.
In 2015, the Mahagathbanthan made a comeback. The RJD won 10 seats, the JD(U) six, the Congress four, the BJP five, and the HAM(S) won one seat.
Caste equations, and the image of the local leadership, play an important role in the Magadh region.
Women voters are expected to play an important role in this Assembly election, including in the Magadh region. The ₹10,000 provided as financial assistance by the Nitish Kumar government has been welcomed. “We are happy with the money Nitish-ji has given to us. He has done a lot of work for women,” Neelam Devi, an SC resident of the Karpi block in Arwal, said.
Sukhiya Paswan, an SC resident of Ratni Faridpur block in Jehanabad, agreed with Ms. Devi, and said the Nitish Kumar government had given voice to women.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address a public meeting in the Magadh region on November 7.
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