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Tamil Nadu is gearing up for an intense election battle anchored by alliances led by the old Dravidian warhorses — the DMK and the AIADMK — with a new disruptor, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founded by film star C. Joseph Vijay, shaking up the political landscape. The spirited presence of Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), a Tamil nationalist outfit that has organically grown into an Election Commission-recognised State party in just over a decade, completes the quadrangular contest for the 234 Assembly seats.
Cognisant of the potential disruption on the cards, the principal players have left nothing to chance and responded by making the required compromises to forge stronger alliances.
Rainbow coalition
The DMK, led by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, has gone beyond retaining its nine-year-old rainbow alliance comprising the Congress, CPI, CPI(M), MDMK, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), IUML and others — largely bound by their ideological opposition to the BJP. Its Secular Progressive Alliance now comprises over 20 parties, with the inclusion of the late Vijayakant’s DMDK, Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam and several sub-regional outfits.
Not just that, the DMK has also opened its doors to former AIADMK leaders, including three-time Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam and his supporters.
Mr. Stalin, in his quest to prevent vote spillover in the event of shrinking victory margins whenever a strong disruptor enters the arena, has not hesitated to make costly trade-offs. For instance, he conceded a Rajya Sabha berth to the ideologically agnostic DMDK to prevent it from moving into the AIADMK-BJP fold. Likewise, despite irritation within the DMK over some Congress functionaries publicly taunting the ruling party, the Congress has been allotted 28 seats, three more than in the previous Assembly election, along with a Rajya Sabha berth.
These decisions have triggered fresh challenges for the DMK, with the CPI(M) and the VCK now seeking increased seat allocations. While the alliance appears formidable in numbers, what many of the smaller parties may bring in terms of vote share is likely to be only incremental support.
Banking on the strength of this expanded alliance and its record on welfare schemes, particularly those involving direct cash transfers and women’s economic empowerment, Mr. Stalin is pushing for what he calls a ‘Dravidian Model 2.0’ government. He is also attempting to overturn the historical record of the DMK not having retained power in consecutive elections since the formation of the first AIADMK government in 1977.
EPS in charge
Seeking to dislodge the DMK, BJP strategist and Union Home Minister Amit Shah stepped in 11 months ago to bring a somewhat reluctant AIADMK back into the NDA fold, assuring the election would be fought under the leadership of Leader of the Opposition Edappadi K. Palaniswami. In the months that followed, mindful of the need for a stronger alliance to take on the DMK, Mr. Shah persuaded the AIADMK leader to accommodate former party rebel T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) in the alliance. However, Mr. Palaniswami showed no such concessions to Mr. Panneerselvam or V.K. Sasikala, the former aide of the late Chief Minister Jayalalithaa. He also expelled senior leader K.A. Sengottaiyan, who had initially attempted to bring together the fractured AIADMK factions with what appeared to be the BJP’s tacit support, but eventually joined the TVK.
Mr. Palaniswami also succeeded in roping in the PMK led by Anbumani following the latter’s estrangement from his father and party founder S. Ramadoss. This, however, came at a price, the nomination of Mr. Anbumani to the Rajya Sabha. Several smaller parties with pockets of influence across districts and caste groups have also joined the alliance.
While the NDA has expanded, its principal constituents remain divided on one key question — the nature of the government to be formed if they win. Mr. Palaniswami has been emphatic that it would be an AIADMK government, whereas BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have spoken about a coalition “double-engine” NDA government. Tamil Nadu, however, has never had a coalition government. Nevertheless, the NDA has gone full throttle against the DMK, attacking it over issues of law and order, corruption, maladministration and dynastic politics.
The third dimension
Challenging this dominantly bipolar landscape is Mr. Vijay, who has been drawing frenzied crowds, particularly among the youth and women, since launching the TVK two years ago. Positioning the DMK as his political adversary and the BJP as his ideological opponent, Mr. Vijay has revived an anti-corruption plank while largely aligning his policies with the welfare-driven framework associated with Dravidian politics. His party too reflects the culture of hero worship, poster politics and aggressive attacks on rivals that have long characterised Tamil Nadu’s political theatre.
This may well be the first time a political party announced through social media, whose leader remains insulated from the media, has generated such disproportionate interest in the political discourse.
Mr. Vijay had dangled the prospect of power-sharing with parties willing to align with him. Yet, no major or minor party chose to gravitate towards his formation. Still, analysts widely project he could secure a double-digit vote share, something no political debutant has achieved in Tamil Nadu in nearly half a century.
Whether that expectation translates into electoral success remains uncertain, particularly given that the TVK lacks the deep organisational machinery that the Dravidian majors possess. The election results alone will reveal the party’s true strength.
In the fray is the NTK, which has fielded candidates in all 234 constituencies, half of them women. Unlike Mr. Vijay, Mr. Seeman harbours no immediate ambitions of becoming Chief Minister and appears willing to play the long game. For him, improving on the party’s 8% vote share would itself be a measure of success.
On the sidelines are V.K. Sasikala and S. Ramadoss, who may at best chip away small pockets of community-based votes that might otherwise accrue to the AIADMK alliance.
Overall, the election is being framed in sharply different ways by the principal players. Mr. Stalin has pitched it as a contest between Tamil Nadu and New Delhi, effectively casting it as DMK versus the BJP-led NDA. Mr. Palaniswami is confronting him directly in that battle. Mr. Vijay, meanwhile, has framed it as a TVK versus DMK contest, while Mr. Seeman is projecting himself as an alternative.
For the voter, the 2026 Assembly election offers more choices than ever before.
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