The stats say it all. Topping the Premier League at Christmas is no guarantee of the title

Arsenal led the way at this point in 2022 and 2023, only to be twice beaten to the crown by Manchester City.

Topping the table at Christmas has traditionally been a bad omen for the North London club, even before Arteta’s time as manager. On four previous occasions in the Premier League era it has held the Yuletide No.1 and never gone on to be crowned champion.

Pep Guardiola and his City side may be most encouraged by the standings, having gone on to win the title on four occasions when not leading at this stage.

Arteta, however, is not dwelling on past failures.

“What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that,” he said after Saturday’s narrow win at Everton ensured top spot.

“That’s very, very difficult to do in this league and that means the team is constantly there.

“Enjoy the process of winning and you’re going to have to go to difficult places, you’re going to have difficult moments. We have dealt with a lot of things already and we are there.” In all 33 seasons of the Premier, the top team at Christmas has been crowned champion on 17 occasions, just over 51% of the time.

Arsenal had looked like racing away at the top, taking advantage as Liverpool’s title defense unraveled while City also slipped up early.

But the lead is now two points over second-place City after a recent run of two points from a possible nine away from home. City briefly moved to the top on Saturday before Viktor Gyokeres’ penalty sealed the 1-0 victory at Everton and broke Arsenal’s winless run on the road.

Times Arsenal has led at Christmas(and which team went on to win the title) 2002-03 – Manchester United

2007-08 – Manchester United

2022-23 – Manchester City

2023-24 – Manchester City

United and Chelsea have won the title on five occasions after leading at Christmas. United has held first place at Christmas seven times in the Premier League era.

Chelsea has a 100% conversion rate when leading at Christmas.

Likewise City, which has won on the three occasions it led. Liverpool has won on two of the seven times it was first.

City is on a roll

The sight of City in the rear-view mirror will be a familiar one to Arteta and Arsenal. And while this is far from a vintage Guardiola team, its charge has an ominous feel.

A 3-0 win against West Ham on Saturday was a seventh straight victory in all competitions for City and a fifth in a row in the league.

Guardiola’s side may lack some of the fluidity and guile of the teams that dominated English soccer until being dethroned by Liverpool last season but, with Erling Haaland up front, it has the most lethal striker in the country.

Haaland’s double against West Ham took his season’s total to 38 goals in 28 games for City and Norway. He is far and away the leading scorer in the league with 19 goals, his closest rival is Brentford’s Igor Thiago on 11.

If Arsenal hoped the signing of Gyokeres would provide it with a similarly lethal forward, it hasn’t worked out like that yet. The Sweden international has just seven goals in 24 games for club and country. His penalty against Everton was only his fifth league goal of the season and his first in six games in all.

Don’t forget Villa

Aston Villa is the form team in the top flight, with 10 straight wins in all competitions, and is just three points back from Arsenal in third place.

Victory against United on Sunday made it 11 wins from 12 games in the league. Unai Emery’s team is unbeaten in 19 games in all, with 16 wins during that run.