This August, Kerala witnessed a sedate monsoon

As the southwest monsoon enters its final phase, Kerala can heave a sigh of relief as most parts of the State have witnessed an even and normal monsoon so far this year. The State, which had witnessed extreme rainfall events in August contributing to flash floods in the past, saw a gradual reduction in such activity this August.

The highlight of the current monsoon season is the prevalence of normal and steady rain throughout, albeit with brief intervals. The State has received a total of 1,550.2 mm of rain during the first three months of the season, against the average of 1,759 mm. Although rain is 12% less, it is considered normal by the India Meteorological department (IMD), as it treats plus or minus 19% deviation as normal.

In the recent past, thunderstorm activities were uncharacteristically reported in the southwest monsoon period also — not with severe lightning as in the summer and northeast monsoon period — due to the presence of frequent convective clouds (cumulonimbus or thunderclouds). This year, during the active spell of monsoon, stratus clouds are predominantly dominant over cumulonimbus clouds, reducing the number of thunderstorm days in the monsoon period.

This August, the State received 355.8 mm of rain against the average of 445.2 mm, a shortfall of 20%. Considering the quantity of rain the State had received in August during the flood years (820.9 mm of rain in 2018 and 950.5 mm of rain in 2019), August has been returning to normalcy since 2020.

Near-normal in Sept.

There is one more month left in the four-month southwest monsoon season, and the latest monthly forecast by the IMD predicts near-normal or below-normal rainfall during the remaining period in September, although the first week of September will see some active monsoon conditions in north and central Kerala influenced by the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.

Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, IMD Director, Thiruvananthapuram, said, “We are anticipating reduced rainfall activity in Kerala in September. This month, the rain-triggering systems are likely to form over the Bay of Bengal as usual. However, the latitude of the systems would not be favourable for Kerala, while the systems siphoning off moisture from the ocean would ignite heavy and extreme rainfall events in north and central India,” said Ms. Gopal.