Thripunithura set for a tight three-cornered contest

The Thripunithura municipality governed by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is set to witness a tight three-cornered contest in the upcoming local body elections.

Arguably the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) biggest stronghold among the 13 municipalities in Ernakulam district, the party has served as the principal Opposition in the temple town dislodging the United Democratic Front (UDF) over the past two terms since 2015.

Ironically, the Thripunithura Assembly constituency, which includes the municipality, has been a UDF bastion since 1991, with K. Babu securing five consecutive victories. Though he was defeated by the LDF’s M. Swaraj in the 2016 Assembly elections, he regained the seat in 2021 with a wafer-thin margin of 992 votes, a result that Mr. Swaraj unsuccessfully challenged in court.

However, the municipality has remained an LDF stronghold since its formation in 1978. In the last local body elections in 2020, the LDF secured a simple majority with 25 seats in the 49-member council. The BJP came second with 15 seats, followed by the UDF with eight, and one Independent. The BJP later increased its tally to 17 after winning two seats from the LDF in the byelections held in May 2022, following the deaths of two councillors.

The LDF had alleged a nexus between the UDF and the BJP in the byelections, which left it vulnerable as its tally fell short of a simple majority. Eight months later, to exploit that vulnerability, the BJP moved a no-confidence motion against the governing committee, which eventually failed after the LDF stayed away and the UDF walked out after the discussion on the motion. Then it was the turn of the BJP to accuse the UDF and the LDF of forming an unholy alliance to keep the LDF in power.

The BJP has steadily increased its presence in the municipality. In 2010, when the UDF wrested power from the LDF, the BJP had just one councillor. In 2015, the number rose to 13, two more than the UDF, which slipped to third, and to 15 in 2020, and to 17 after the byelections. However, a drop of over 6,000 in the BJP’s vote share in the 2021 Thripunithura Assembly election triggered a political controversy, with the LDF raising the spectre of a BJP-UDF alliance.

Following delimitation, the number of divisions in the municipality has increased by four, bringing the total to 53. The beneficiary of this expansion in the polls remains to be seen. While the LDF remains confident of returning to power with a stronger majority citing its development initiatives, the BJP is optimistic about capturing power for the first time, with the State leadership set to lead the campaign. Despite its setbacks over the past decade, the UDF remains hopeful of a comeback by fielding stronger candidates and avoiding the scare of rebels, which has always plagued it.