Trump's tariff plus penalty won't affect India, ties with Russia intact: Experts

From taking credit for the ceasefire understanding between India and Pakistan during Operation Sindoor to declaring the economies of India and Russia “dead,” US President Donald Trump has been making a series of harsh statements. His latest: a 25% tariff and penalty imposed on Indian goods. India has responded by saying it is still working with the United States to achieve a fair trade agreement.

Experts believe that despite the announcement, India will remain unshaken. While the new tariffs primarily affect the agriculture, dairy, and other industrial sectors, analysts are assessing the broader impact on India–US diplomacy and defence ties.

Defence expert and director of a prominent think tank, Major General DC Katoch (Retd.), says Trump’s remarks on India are distressing. According to him, “As US President Donald Trump announces a 25% tariff and penalties on India, it’s important to note that India cannot compromise its agriculture and dairy sectors. India is a strong nation, and we know how to handle these issues.”

While Trump’s statements—particularly those targeting the Indian economy—are concerning, experts do not foresee significant consequences for the India–US defence partnership. In addition to ongoing deals for MQ-9 drones, Apache helicopters, and F404 jet engines, the two nations have recently announced a decade-long defence cooperation roadmap.

Though there are delays in the delivery of F404 engines, experts say India can always explore alternative options in the long run. Partners such as France could be approached for engines, and Russia could be considered for Su-57 fighter jets if needed. According to Major General Katoch, “India is becoming increasingly self-reliant in its defence needs and can pursue alternatives to jet engines if required.”

On India’s longstanding ties with Russia, he added, “Our relationship with Russia will remain unchanged, despite US concerns over India’s oil and armaments deals with Moscow. Russia has been a long-time partner, and no one can affect that relationship.”

Commenting on Pakistan’s reaction to the US tariff announcement, Katoch remarked that Islamabad has been celebrating its recent engagement with Washington. However, he noted, “The US uses Pakistan as per its convenience. Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir wasn’t invited—he was summoned. We don’t even think about Pakistan; it’s a renter state.”

Dr Abhishek Srivastava, who teaches diplomacy at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, also weighed in on Trump’s announcement.

“Trade agreements frequently serve as tools for strategic alignment in international relations—promoting trust, reducing transactional friction, and enabling deeper cooperation,” he said, "The impact on defence ties is unlikely, as the current India–US trade agreement does not directly include defence components. However, it may influence the broader climate for future strategic collaboration. While this mini-trade pact focusses on goods like textiles and industrial products, defence deals operate on a separate track guided by shared security interests. In essence, while the trade deal isn’t about defence, it helps build the kind of goodwill and strategic alignment that makes deeper defence collaboration between the two nations more likely and sustainable.”

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