5 Reasons Why BJP Could End Mamata Banerjee’s 15-Year Reign In West Bengal

Last Updated:April 28, 2026, 09:34 IST

With BJP's rise and the collapse of Congress and Left parties, TMC now appears to be on the backfoot for the first time in 15 years.

West Bengal election 2026: After the record turnout in north Bengal, where the BJP dominated in 2021, focus has now shifted to Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold seats in the southern part of the state. The polling in the remaining 142 seats will begin on Wednesday morning, while the counting is scheduled for May 4.

But the million-dollar question after two months of high-voltage campaign of the West Bengal election remains unanswered: who is winning the Bengal frontier? With the meteoric rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) now appears to be on the backfoot for the first time in 15 years, especially due to the collapse of Congress and Left parties.

While Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee remains a formidable force, several ground-level trends suggest the BJP could be better positioned than ever before to mount a serious challenge.

Here Are Five Reasons Why TMC’s Rule Could End In West Bengal

1. Anti-Incumbency After 15 Years

After more than a decade and a half in office, the TMC is facing visible anti-incumbency. Issues such as unemployment, corruption allegations, and governance concerns have started resonating more strongly with voters.

While Mamata Banerjee continues to retain personal popularity, fatigue against long incumbency could push sections of undecided voters towards the BJP, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies.

2. BJP Consolidating Vote Base

The BJP is no longer an emerging force but a well-entrenched political player in West Bengal. From just 10% vote share in the 2016 election, the party grew to 38% in the 2021 West Bengal election and won 77 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP’s vote share was around 39% while it scored victories in 12 seats, six fewer than it had in the 2019 general election.

3. Consolidation Of Anti-TMC Votes

The decline of traditional players like the Left and Congress has led to a bipolar political landscape in West Bengal. This means anti-incumbent votes are less fragmented and more likely to consolidate behind the BJP, giving it a structural advantage in a first-past-the-post system.

Recent political rhetoric and attacks from opposition leaders across parties, including Rahul Gandhi, targeting Mamata Banerjee over corruption, have further strengthened the anti-TMC narrative.

4. Narrative Shift: Development vs Welfare

The BJP has framed the election around a development and governance narrative, positioning itself as an alternative to TMC’s welfare-driven model. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign has emphasised a vision of “Viksito Bangla" (Developed Bengal), focusing on growth, infrastructure, and governance reforms.

5. Identity Politics and Cultural Outreach

One of the BJP’s biggest challenges in Bengal has been the perception of being an “outsider" party. In 2026, it actively tried to counter this through cultural and identity-based outreach, engaging with Bengali traditions, festivals, and local symbols to connect with voters. The BJP has made a huge attempt to counter the TMC’s narrative on non-vegetarian food, with its leaders seen eating fish during the campaign.

At the same time, issues like citizenship, migration, and border security have been central to the BJP’s campaign, helping mobilise specific voter segments. The BJP has bashed TMC for appeasing Muslims and sheltering Bangladeshi “infiltrators", strengthening its core voter base of Hindus.

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