Assam Elections 2026: C-Voters Opinion Poll Shows BJP's Return For Third Straight Time In Tight Battle

Last Updated:April 08, 2026, 14:20 IST

Survey predicts BJP led NDA to win 96 to 98 of 126 Assam seats, with about 48 percent support and Himanta Biswa Sarma the top choice for chief minister

Is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as one of the biggest gainers in the Assembly elections to be held in Assam? Well a latest C-Voter survey offers an insight into the mood of the electorates ahead of the states Assembly elections in Assam. According to the C-Voter survey, in Assam, BJP-led NDA will leads at 48% while UPA is likely to stands at 35%.

Earlier, a vote tracker survey by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18 showed the National Democratic Alliance, led by the BJP, is on course for a decisive third straight victory in Assam.

In the battle for 126 Assembly seats, it is being predicted that the BJP will secure victory in around 96 to 98 seats.

A recent opinion poll estimates have shown that the BJP-led NDA is predicted to win comfortably in Assam, with about 96–98 seats for the alliance. This is a big increase over its 2021 tally. The Congress-led opposition is projected to get around 26–30 seats.

Region-wise estimates suggest the NDA is ahead across most of the state, with particularly strong leads in Upper Assam, Lower Assam, and the North Bank, pointing to a wide and evenly spread support base.

Himanta Factor In Assam

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma continues to be a central factor in the NDA’s prospects. Nearly half of those surveyed (48%) named Sarma as their preferred chief minister, ahead of Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who garnered 37.7% support.

Vote Share

The survey also places the NDA ahead in vote share, with 42.7% of respondents indicating support for the ruling alliance, compared with 36.1% backing the opposition.

Importantly, perceptions appear to favour the NDA, with 51.8% of respondents saying it is most likely to form the next government, well ahead of its rivals.

On governance, opinions were largely favourable. Around 50.6% of respondents rated the Sarma government’s actions against illegal immigration from Bangladesh as “good" or “very good", while about a quarter described the performance as average.

A smaller segment expressed dissatisfaction, and some respondents remained undecided.

Overall, 47% of those polled said they were satisfied with the state government’s performance, indicating that anti-incumbency sentiment has not significantly weakened the NDA’s position.

Welfare Schemes

The poll indicates strong NDA support among key social groups, particularly SC, OBC, and upper-caste voters.

Welfare initiatives also appear to be reinforcing this base. About 42.8% of respondents believe the ₹9,000 direct benefit transfer scheme for women could further consolidate support for the ruling alliance.

Challenges That Remain

The poll indicates strong NDA support among key social groups, particularly SC, OBC, and upper-caste voters.

Welfare initiatives also appear to be reinforcing this base. About 42.8% of respondents believe the ₹9,000 direct benefit transfer scheme for women could further consolidate support for the ruling alliance.

Accuracy Of Opinion Polls

Opinion polls in India have had a mixed track record. Some elections they’ve been impressively close; in others, they have missed badly — especially when voter swings happen late or alliances shift.

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