At Rising Bharat, Expert Warns Iran Holds Multiple Cards In Latest War As Israel, US Launch Strikes

Last Updated:February 28, 2026, 14:41 IST

What makes the present moment particularly dangerous, Swiss-based military historian Adrien Fontanellaz warned, is the unpredictability of Iran’s response

As open hostilities broke out between Iran and the US-Israel axis on Saturday, a stark warning emerged from News18’s Rising Bharat Summit—Tehran holds multiple levers of retaliation, and events may no longer be in Washington or Tel Aviv’s control.

Speaking at the summit, Swiss-based military historian Adrien Fontanellaz said the unfolding conflict underscores a deeper global shift, one where assumptions of dominance and predictability have eroded.

Fontanellaz placed the current confrontation in the context of a broader geopolitical transition. “In the early 2000s, we thought we were living in a completed world, governed by international law," he said. “But for over a decade now, everything has been unravelling."

According to him, the move from a unipolar order dominated by the United States to a multipolar system—with powers such as India rising—has generated friction and instability. “We are now back in a conflicted world until a new paradigm emerges," he noted, describing the present moment as “highly risky."

The outbreak of direct hostilities between Iran and Israel, with US involvement, appears to reflect precisely that volatility.

Fontanellaz drew comparisons between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, arguing that both leaders demonstrated a belief in swift, decisive operations that avoid prolonged entanglement. He cited Russia’s short 2008 war with Georgia and the subsequent annexation of Crimea as examples of quick strategic wins that may have shaped Moscow’s later miscalculation in Ukraine. What was expected to be another rapid success instead turned into a grinding, protracted conflict involving Russia, Ukraine and Western Europe.

Fontanellaz suggested that Washington may be facing a similar strategic gamble in confronting Iran. “So far, military operations have been clean, under control, and scoring PR points," he observed. “But the danger this time in going against Iran is that we have no control over what the Iranians will do."

The historian stressed that Tehran possesses “several serious options" in the event of escalation. Among them, he said, were targeting American naval assets in the Persian Gulf, deploying an arsenal of at least 1,000 long-range ballistic missiles, launching thousands of shorter-range missiles capable of striking bases in Saudi Arabia, activating regional allies and Tehran-backed militias. He also described Iran’s long-range missile capability—alongside its nuclear potential—as a form of strategic insurance. “My assumption is they will not renounce them so easily," he said, implying that Iran’s deterrent posture is deeply embedded in its national security doctrine, and any attempt to degrade it risks triggering broader retaliation.

What makes the present moment particularly dangerous, Fontanellaz warned, is the unpredictability of Iran’s response. “What is frightening," he said, “is that the Israelis and the Americans don’t have control over Iran’s possibility to escalate."

With war now underway, that uncertainty looms large. Unlike previous limited strikes or shadow conflicts, Saturday’s developments risk drawing in regional actors, disrupting energy corridors, and widening into a sustained confrontation.

News world At Rising Bharat, Expert Warns Iran Holds Multiple Cards In Latest War As Israel, US Launch Strikes

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