Critical election day: Assam votes in a high-stakes assembly election; Results will determine political landscape for years to come

Guwahati: With all its 126 assembly constituencies redrawn and the electoral balance reconfigured, Assam goes to the polls on Thursday in a single-phase election to choose the 16th legislative assembly.This first election after the delimitation exercise of 2023 will decide whether the state retains a BJP-led alliance for a third successive term or brings back Congress after a decade-long gapPolls in Assam are being held in a single phase after a gap of 25 years. According to the Election Commission, the decision was made possible by better infrastructure and an improved law and order situation across the state.Asam CEO Anurag Goel said that the administration has identified vulnerable and sensitive polling stations based on Election Commission criteria, past incidents of electoral violence, and current security concerns.“To ensure transparency, for the first time 100% webcasting will be conducted across all 31,490 polling stations. In sensitive locations, CAPF personnel will be deployed, with additional forces tasked with area domination,” he said.Along with micro observers from the central government, around two lakh civil polling personnel — including those kept in reserve — and one lakh police personnel will be on duty. They will be supported by 800 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) and the Assam Police to ensure a free and fair election.

Assam’s final voter list counts 2,50,21,413 eligible voters — an increase of more than one crore over the past 25 years.The most striking feature is the near parity between men and women as female voters trail their male counterparts by just 6,630, giving women a share of 49.9%, signalling the beginning of end of long standing male dominance in the state’s electoral rolls.The state’s young voters have emerged as a decisive force, with the numbers in the 18–29 age group rising from 69.35 lakh in 2021 to 72.83 lakh in 2026 — a 5.02% expansion.

The biggest surge has come from first time voters in the 18–19 age bracket jumped by 24.16%, climbing to 6.28 lakh from 5.05 lakh five years ago. Their share within the broader youth bloc has grown from 7.29% to 8.62%, underscoring the growing weight of young voices in shaping Assam’s electoral outcome.There are 721 candidates in fray, which include 59 women. The youngest candidate is a 27-year-old girl, Kunki Chowdhury in Guwahati Central constituency.

The masters’ degree holder in educational leadership from University College in London has been pitted by Congress ally, AJP, against BJP’s one of the oldest members, 70-year-old Vijay Kumar Gupta.Chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking his sixth consecutive term from Jalukbari constituency. On the opposite side, Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi is making is debut in assembly elections from Jorhat constituency from where his late father, former CM Tarun Gogoi started his political career as a member of Jorhat municipal board in 1968.EC is optimistic about a high turnout of voters but is also concerned about the weather. The meteorological department has warned of rain and thunderstorms on the polling day. “Rain might dampen the spirits in urban areas, but we expect full turnout in rural areas, an official said.Voter turnout in Assam has historically been robust and climbing up. The political meanings of the voting percentage show that in 1991, Congress won with a turnout at 74.67%, five years later, when turnout climbed to 78.92% and the regional wave carried the AGP to victory.Between 2001 and 2011, when the turnout hovered in the mid 70s — 75.1% in 2001, 75.77% in 2006, and 76.05% in 2011 —each time it was a victory for Congress.In 2016, Assam recorded its highest turnout in decades at 87.03%, and the BJP swept. Five years later, in 2021, turnout was still robust at 82.42%, and the party retained its hold.BJP is contesting 90 seats, backed by allies AGP and BPF, leaned heavily on the “double-engine” narrative and slogan of Assamese identity protection from infiltrators from Bangladesh.Congress, contesting in 99 seats, is banking on Gaurav’s youth appeal. Fighting a revival battle along with five other allies, Congress has focused on a new inclusive Assam.For Himanta Biswa Sarma, a second term would cement his stature as the BJP’s most powerful leader in the region. For Gaurav Gogoi, a strong showing would mark his arrival as a national-level player and give the Congress a foothold in a state it once dominated.