El Niño Is Here. Does It Always Mean Drought For India? Here’s What Past Data Shows

Last Updated:June 12, 2026, 14:07 IST

India has seen several El Niño years before, but not all of them followed the same monsoon script.

El Niño, the Pacific Ocean warming pattern known for disrupting weather across the world, has arrived at a time when the planet is already unusually hot. Global forecasters have warned that the event could become one of the strongest in recorded history, raising concerns over extreme heat, floods, droughts and weak monsoon conditions in vulnerable regions.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed the formation of El Niño. According to NOAA, there is a 63 per cent chance that the event will become so intense by late fall and early winter that it “would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950".

The World Meteorological Organisation has said there is an 80 per cent chance of the world experiencing El Niño conditions in July-August 2026, rising to 90 per cent by November.

For India, the warning is especially significant. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-average monsoon across the country this year. Since the southwest monsoon is central to agriculture, water storage, rural incomes and food prices, even a moderate rainfall deficit can have wide economic consequences.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing event as an “urgent climate warning".

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving at our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is," Guterres said in a statement on June 3.

In a separate video message, he said: “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a climate phenomenon in which trade winds and sea-surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean shift from their normal pattern.

Usually, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing warm surface waters towards Asia and Australia. During El Niño, these winds weaken or change, allowing unusually warm waters to build up in the central and eastern Pacific. This changes the movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall and temperatures in several regions.

The term El Niño, meaning “little boy" in Spanish, originated from Peruvian fishermen who noticed warm waters in the Pacific around December. Over time, scientists found that this warming pattern could influence weather far beyond South America.

In North and South America, especially near the Pacific coast, El Niño can trigger extreme rainfall, snow and storms. In Asia, including India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Australia, El Niño conditions are typically linked to weaker monsoons and, in some years, drought.

Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier told AP that the warm, deep waters of an El Niño bring “a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world."

She said that, especially in the Pacific, “it can get dire very quickly."

Why India Is Vulnerable

India’s biggest worry during an El Niño year is the southwest monsoon, which brings most of the country’s annual rainfall and supports the kharif crop season.

In a normal monsoon year, rain-bearing winds from the Indian Ocean move towards the Indian subcontinent and bring rainfall across large parts of the country. But during El Niño, unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean can disturb this pattern. The result is that monsoon winds over India may weaken, leading to lower rainfall or longer dry spells.

However, El Niño does not automatically mean drought for India. The final impact depends on how it interacts with other climate systems, especially the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD.

The IOD is a temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean. When it is positive, it can help bring more rain to India and reduce the impact of El Niño. This happened in 1997, when the world saw a very strong El Niño, but India’s monsoon remained largely normal because a positive IOD helped balance its effect.

For 2026, however, the IMD has forecast a neutral IOD. This means the Indian Ocean Dipole may not do much to offset El Niño’s impact on the monsoon.

What Past El Niño Years Show

India’s drought history shows why El Niño years are watched so closely.

Since 1950, India has seen 16 El Niño years. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, seven of them affected the Indian monsoon, with rainfall falling below normal. In the remaining El Niño years, the monsoon either stayed normal or saw only a marginal decline.

In the last 70 years, there have been three “very strong" or super El Niño events globally: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. The strength of an El Niño is measured by how much sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific rise above average. A rise of more than 0.5 degrees Celsius is considered an El Niño event. In the three super El Niño events, sea-surface temperatures rose by more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.

India’s experience during these events has varied. In 1982 and 2015, strong El Niño conditions affected the Indian monsoon, leading to below-average rainfall and drought-like conditions in some regions. But in 1997, despite a powerful El Niño globally, the Indian monsoon remained broadly normal because a positive IOD helped counterbalance the Pacific warming.

A 2024 study by IIT Gandhinagar identified 2002, 1965, 1972, 1918 and 2009 as the five most exceptional calendar-year droughts in India. These years coincided with ENSO conditions, underlining the risk India faces when El Niño is strong and other balancing factors fail.

The Great Famine of 1877-78, which killed more than 5 million people in British India, has also been associated with strong El Niño conditions that caused low rainfall in South Asia.

Heatwave And Agriculture Risks

El Niño’s impact on India is not limited to rainfall. It can also intensify heatwaves. AP cited climate scientists as saying that India faces more intense heat waves during El Niño, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.

Agriculture is another major concern. The kharif season depends heavily on timely and well-distributed rainfall. A delayed onset, long dry spell or poor regional distribution can hurt sowing even if the all-India rainfall deficit appears moderate.

The pressure could grow if rainfall worries combine with fertiliser supply risks. ICRA has warned that fertiliser shortages in South Asia, linked to the impact of the Iran war, could add to the challenge for India’s kharif season. A weaker monsoon, along with fertiliser availability concerns, could affect sowing, crop output and farm incomes.

About the Author

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo...Read More

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