El Niño likely to hit oil sardine stocks in 2027, says CMFRI

El Niño, a global climate phenomenon, is likely to trigger immense marine heatwaves, leading to a significant decline in Indian oil sardine availability next year, according to the Central Marine Research Institute (CMFRI).

CMFRI Director Grinson George said the warming associated with El Niño is expected to intensify during October-December, and that its impact is likely to be felt on the northern Indian Ocean by April-May, 2027. He was speaking after inaugurating the National Fish Farmers Day at CMFRI on Friday (July 10, 2026).

“Oil sardine stock is abundant this year, but the resource is likely to be affected in 2027 if the projected warming occurs. Small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable species to heatwaves and ocean warming,” Mr. George said, adding that it would lead to a reduction in overall marine fish production.

Established information indicates probability of marine heatwaves, increased sea surface temperature, and high salinity during April and May next year. Sustained warming could adversely affect coral reefs, resulting in coral bleaching and a reduction in the natural abundance of reef-associated species such as red snapper,” he said.

CMFRI will provide El Niño advisories to fishermen and fish farmers this year itself. Urging fish farmers to brace for the situation, Mr. George said sudden rainfall following prolonged periods of high temperature and salinity could also trigger rapid salinity fluctuations, disrupting coastal aquaculture activities.