Energy mix outlook 2050: Natural gas only fossil fuel to rise in US, China, India; coal and oil to decline globally

Natural gas will be the only fossil fuel to record an increase in the energy mix of the United States, China, and India by 2050, even as coal and oil usage decline globally, according to a sector update by Nuvama Institutional Equities, citing S&P Global Commodity Insights.“By 2050, gas shall be the only fossil fuel with a potential increase in the energy mix for the US, China, and India,” the report stated. As per news agency ANI, it noted that despite a sharp rise in renewable capacity worldwide, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy basket in major economies. Renewables are projected to grow from 4 per cent at present to about 20 per cent by 2050, while fossil fuels are still expected to make up more than 50 per cent.In India, the report highlighted, the current energy mix is heavily skewed towards fossil fuels, which account for 77 per cent, while renewables stand at just 2 per cent. By 2050, fossil fuels are expected to drop to 66 per cent and renewables to rise to 16 per cent. Gas, the study said, will emerge as a “transition fuel,” offering flexibility and cleaner alternatives to coal.“In the US, Europe and Southeast Asia, coal-to-gas substitution has been a favourable transition, while India has lagged in leveraging gas in the power sector,” the report observed, as per ANI.

It added that scalability and commercial challenges hinder a direct shift from coal to renewables, making gas a critical bridge on the path to net zero.The report also flagged the role of government schemes in aiding the transition. “The category of ‘other energy sources’, essentially traditional biomass (cooking), is declining sharply—being replaced by LPG. Government schemes such as ‘PAHAL’ and targeted LPG subsidies have driven this shift, leading to a reduction from 38 per cent to 19 per cent with expected further decline,” it noted.While initiatives like the National Hydrogen Mission and GST cuts to support renewables demonstrate intent, the study cautioned that without systemic flexibility, gas market reforms, and scaled-up storage capacity, India risks missing both its near-term and long-term climate ambitions. “Gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, could play a balancing role if supported through tax and pricing reforms,” the report said, adding that without such steps, the country may fall short of its 2070 net-zero target.