Exit Poll Results Kerala 2026: UDF Projected To Cross Majority Mark, LDF Trails

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 18:39 IST

News18 Exit Poll Result Kerala 2026: As per VoteVibe’s findings, the UDF is projected to secure 42.6% of the vote share, narrowly ahead of the LDF at 39.5%.

News18 Exit Poll Result Kerala 2026: Exit poll projections for the 2026 Kerala Assembly election are here, and they point to a closely fought contest with a potential edge for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), suggesting a possible shift in power, though the margins remain tight and well within the statistical range of error.

According to exit poll projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has taken a narrow lead in vote share over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), though the race remains extremely tight.

The projections suggest that while UDF may have an edge, the margin falls within the statistical range of error, keeping the final outcome uncertain.

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UDF LEADS, LDF TRAILS 

In terms of seat projections, the UDF is expected to win 70–80 seats (midpoint 75), crossing the majority mark of 71 in the 140-member Assembly. The LDF is projected at 58–68 seats (midpoint 63), suggesting it may fall short of retaining power. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, is expected to win between 0–4 seats.

As per VoteVibe’s findings, the UDF is projected to secure 42.6% of the vote share, narrowly ahead of the LDF at 39.5%, marking a gap of around 3 percentage points—well within the ±3% margin of error. The NDA is projected at 14.3%, while Others account for 3.6%.

VOTE SHARE BY GENDER, DEMOGRAPHY

The exit poll highlights sharp demographic and regional divides shaping the contest. Among men, the UDF leads comfortably with 44.8% support compared to LDF’s 37%. Women voters, however, are nearly evenly split, with a slight edge for the LDF at 41.8% versus UDF’s 40.6%.

Age-wise, younger voters (18–24) strongly favour the UDF with 47% support, while older voters show a more balanced preference with a slight tilt towards the LDF. Community-wise, SC and Dalit voters remain a strong base for the LDF at 52.8%, while OBC voters also lean towards the Left.

Upper-caste Hindu voters are split almost evenly across three political blocs, with the BJP registering its strongest support at 30% in this segment. In contrast, Muslim voters strongly back the UDF at 54.2%, while Christians emerge as its most solid support base at 58.3%.

ALSO READ: Kerala Elections: Has BJP Increased Its Influence Without Winning Seats? What The Data Shows

Regionally, North Kerala shows a UDF lead (45.1% vs 39.1% for LDF), driven by its strong performance among Muslim voters. Central Kerala remains highly competitive (41.5% UDF vs 40.5% LDF), while South Kerala emerges as the tightest battleground (39.8% UDF vs 39.3% LDF), with the NDA showing its strongest regional presence at 17%.

CM PREFERENCE

On leadership preference, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of the CPM leads individually with 31.8% support, despite signs of anti-incumbency. Congress leader VD Satheesan follows at 27.9%, emerging as the key face of the UDF campaign. Former health minister KK Shailaja continues to enjoy personal popularity at 9.4%, while nearly 9.7% respondents remain undecided.

The exit poll suggests that despite Pinarayi Vijayan’s personal appeal, voter sentiment may be tilting towards change, with the UDF projected to cross the majority threshold. However, the narrow margins and statistical error indicate that the LDF cannot be ruled out, especially in a closely fought contest where Central and South Kerala are expected to be decisive.

As always, exit polls remain indicative rather than conclusive, and final results on May 4 will determine whether Kerala continues its tradition of alternating governments or breaks the cycle this time.

News elections Exit Poll Results Kerala 2026: UDF Projected To Cross Majority Mark, LDF Trails

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