Exit Poll Results Tamil Nadu 2026: AIADMK+ Projected To Edge DMK+ Out Of Power In Close Contest

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 19:10 IST

Tamil Nadu 2026 exit polls show AIADMK plus narrowly ahead of DMK plus in seats and votes, MK Stalin slightly leads EPS as preferred CM, unemployment and inflation top voter issues

News18 Exit Poll Result Tamil Nadu 2026: Exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election are here, and they indicate a tightly contested electoral battle, with the AIADMK+ alliance holding a marginal edge over the DMK+ alliance in both vote share and projected seat tally.

The projections suggest a neck-and-neck race where the outcome may hinge on narrow margins.

According to exit poll projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the AIADMK+-led alliance has taken a slight lead over the DMK+-led bloc in vote share, though the gap remains well within the statistical margin of error.

The projections highlight a competitive contest, with the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a significant third force adding complexity to the electoral dynamics.

AIADMK+ LEADS, DMK+ TRAILS IN TIGHT RACE

In terms of seat projections, the AIADMK+ alliance is expected to win 114-124 seats (midpoint 119), crossing the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly.

The DMK+ alliance is projected to secure 103-113 seats (midpoint 108), indicating a close contest but a slight disadvantage in forming the government.

TVK is expected to win between 4 and 10 seats, potentially playing a role in closely contested constituencies.

As per VoteVibe’s findings, AIADMK+ is projected to secure 39.9 per cent of the vote share, narrowly ahead of DMK+ at 38.9 per cent, marking a gap of around 1 percentage point, well within the ±3 per cent margin of error.

TVK is projected at 15.8 per cent, while NTK stands at 3.5 per cent and Others at 1.9 per cent.

VOTE SHARE BY GENDER, DEMOGRAPHY

The exit poll reflects distinct demographic voting patterns across the state.

Among male voters, AIADMK+ leads with 42.1 per cent support, compared to DMK+ at 39.2 per cent.

Among female voters, DMK+ holds a slight edge with 38.6 per cent, while AIADMK+ stands at 37.8 per cent, and TVK registers a notable 18.1 per cent.

Age-wise trends show that younger voters (18-24) favour DMK+ with 42.2 per cent, while AIADMK+ trails at 28.3 per cent and TVK emerges strong at 25.1 per cent.

In the 35-44 age group, AIADMK+ dominates with 46.5 per cent, compared to DMK+ at 35.5 per cent.

Among voters aged 55 and above, DMK+ leads with 48.6 per cent, followed by AIADMK+ at 41.9 per cent.

Community-wise, DMK+ maintains a strong lead among SC voters at 54.4 per cent, while AIADMK+ performs better among ST voters with 43.9 per cent.

Among OBC voters, AIADMK+ leads significantly with 48.9 per cent, compared to DMK+ at 31.0 per cent.

Upper-caste Hindu voters also favour AIADMK+ at 48.1 per cent, while DMK+ trails at 27.2 per cent.

Minority voting patterns remain firmly aligned with DMK+, which garners 62.8 per cent support among Muslim voters and 52.4 per cent among Christian voters.

REGIONAL TRENDS SHAPE CONTEST

Regionally, the contest presents a split verdict across Tamil Nadu.

In the KTCC region (37 seats), DMK+ leads with 19-21 seats, while AIADMK+ is projected at 12-14 and TVK at 3-5.

In North Tamil Nadu (52 seats), AIADMK+ dominates with 32-34 seats, while DMK+ trails at 18-20.

In the West (50 seats), AIADMK+ maintains a strong lead with 33-35 seats compared to DMK+ at 14-16.

The Delta region (37 seats) tilts towards DMK+, which is projected to win 20-21 seats, while AIADMK+ stands at 14-16.

In the South (58 seats), DMK+ leads with 32-34 seats, while AIADMK+ is projected at 23-25.

Urban-rural patterns further underline the competitiveness, with DMK+ slightly ahead in urban areas (38.5 per cent) and AIADMK+ leading in rural regions (41.5 per cent).

CM PREFERENCE

On leadership preference, MK Stalin leads marginally with 39.1 per cent support, closely followed by Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) at 38.4 per cent.

Actor-turned-politician Vijay registers 14.1 per cent support, indicating his growing influence as a political contender.

Others account for 6.1 per cent, while 2.3 per cent of respondents remain undecided.

KEY ISSUES DOMINATING VOTER SENTIMENT

The exit poll identifies unemployment (17.8 per cent) and inflation (17.5 per cent) as the top concerns among voters.

Alcoholism and drugs follow at 15.7 per cent, while development stands at 12.0 per cent.

Corruption in government and local bodies is cited by 10.5 per cent of respondents.

Concerns over federal structure account for 8.6 per cent, language imposition 6.4%, and law and order, along with women’s security, 6.0 per cent.

Other issues or undecided responses make up 5.4 per cent.

The exit poll suggests a highly competitive election in Tamil Nadu, with AIADMK+ holding a slight advantage but the race remaining within the margin of error.

With multiple regions showing split mandates and demographic variations influencing outcomes, the final results on May 4 will determine whether the projected edge translates into a decisive victory or a closely fought finish.

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