Foreign-born workers in US fall by nearly 6 lakh in February; ironically unemployment rate for native-born rises

The number of foreign-born workers in the United States declined sharply in February 2026, while unemployment among US-born workers increased, according to an analysis of official data by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) household survey, the study found that the number of foreign-born workers fell by 5.96 lakh between January and February 2026, and by 10 lakh since March 2025, when the figure had peaked.The analysis said earlier population projections by the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration had assumed around 13 lakh more foreign-born workers near the start of the Trump administration.

Instead, BLS data show that the number of foreign-born workers has declined by nearly 6 lakh since Jan 2025.Overall labour force also shrinks:The report noted that the U.S. economy has historically depended on immigrants for labour-force growth. Between 2014 and 2024, the labour force grew by more than 13 lakh workers annually, with immigrants accounting for over half of the increase.However, instead of expanding, the total US labour force has fallen by about 2.13 lakh workers since Jan 2025, according to seasonally adjusted BLS estimates.

Native-born workers not seeing gains:The decline in immigrant workers has not translated into better employment outcomes for US-born workers, the analysis said.The unemployment rate among US-born workers rose to 4.7% in Feb 2026, compared with 4.4% in Feb 2025. The labour-force participation rate for US-born persons aged 16 and above also slipped from 61.4% to 61.0% over the same period.“Most economic research shows that immigration increases employment opportunities for the US-born, so it would not be surprising if reducing immigration harms American workers,” said labour economist and NFAP senior fellow Mark Regets.Immigration curbs may prolong decline:The report said the fall in the foreign-born workforce is likely to continue under current immigration policies, which include tighter restrictions on both legal and illegal immigration.It noted that migration trends are influenced not only by enforcement but also by the perception of a less welcoming environment, which could increase emigration even among legal visa holders.Survey data may overestimate population:NFAP cautioned that monthly BLS household survey data should not be treated as precise population estimates. For instance, BLS figures show an increase of 27 lakh US-born persons aged over 16 between Jan 2025 and Jan 2026, whereas Census estimates indicate growth of roughly half that number.The report said survey adjustments made to match prior Census expectations could lead to overestimates of both US-born and foreign-born populations, potentially masking the actual scale of immigrant labour losses.Economic impact could be significant:According to NFAP estimates, current immigration policies could reduce the number of workers in the U.S. by 68 lakh by 2028 and 1.57 crore by 2035, slowing economic growth by nearly one-third.The analysis projected a loss of about 1.9 crore worker-years by 2028 and 10.2 crore worker-years by 2035, with cumulative GDP reduced by $1.9 trillion between 2025 and 2028 and $12.1 trillion by 2035.Legal immigration also projected to fall:NFAP estimated that legal immigration could decline by more than 6 lakh during Trump’s second term, partly due to lower refugee admissions and restrictions affecting nationals from multiple countries.A December 16 presidential proclamation restricting immigrant and certain temporary visas for nationals of dozens of countries could reduce legal immigration by over 2 lakh people in the next three years, the report said.

The report said the restrictions could affect US citizens sponsoring relatives, employers seeking foreign workers and universities admitting international students.This report elicited discussions on social media platforms. Greg Siskind, immigration attorney said, “NFAP has released a new analysis of the US labour force showing the US-born unemployment rate has increased while the number of foreign-born workers has declined. That may sound counter-intuitive, but it reflects a long-studied phenomenon of immigrants generating more jobs for US workers than they replace.

We've had very high immigration numbers and some of the lowest unemployment numbers ever recorded in recent decades and that's not a surprise.”