From SIR To Infiltration: Issues Defining West Bengal’s 2026 Election Landscape

Last Updated:April 12, 2026, 11:00 IST

West Bengal heads to 2026 polls amid voter roll deletions, Matua unrest, urban anti incumbency, welfare push, jobs and industry disputes, identity politics and infiltration debate

As West Bengal prepares for the 2026 Assembly elections, several political, economic and social issues are expected to dominate the campaign narrative across the state. Political parties are focusing on governance, welfare schemes, law and order, employment and allegations of corruption as they attempt to appeal to voters.

Take a look at the issues that has occupied the campaign centre stage for political parties across the board.

SIR

The publication of the post-SIR electoral rolls has led to one of the most significant pre-election shifts in the state in recent years, with the revision removing nearly 63.66 lakh names from the voter list ahead of the assembly elections. As a result, the electorate has declined from 7.66 crore to just over 7.04 crore, substantially reshaping the state’s electoral landscape and adding a new layer of uncertainty at the start of the campaign season.

The changes have compelled parties to rework their booth-level calculations, especially in districts reporting high numbers of deletions. The revisions are also heavily concentrated in several border districts and urban regions—areas known for being politically sensitive and closely contested.

Matua Factor

The Matuas, a Scheduled Caste Hindu refugee community with significant influence across around 50 Assembly seats in West Bengal, have emerged as a crucial electoral bloc. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP won a majority of these seats, contributing to its total tally of 77 seats, and the party largely retained this support base in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well.

However, the large-scale deletion of names during the SIR process has unsettled voters in Matua-dominated areas, reviving concerns over identity, documentation, and electoral inclusion among community members who have migrated from present-day Bangladesh over several decades.

Urban Anger/Anti Incumbency

When Kolkata-based sociology researcher Rimjhim Sinha called for a “Reclaim the Night" movement on social media following the rape and murder of a medical intern at RG Kar Hospital in 2024, she could not have anticipated how rapidly the message would spread, tapping into growing anger among urban women, youth, and even senior citizens against the state’s ruling establishment.

What followed across urban and semi-urban parts of West Bengal were spontaneous street protests that continued for months. The movement demanded justice for the victim, stronger workplace safety measures, and the right of women to safely occupy public spaces at night. The surge of public anger—largely directed at the functioning of state-run institutions under the Trinamool Congress—was unprecedented.

Although the state’s principal opposition parties were largely kept outside the protest space by participants, the Trinamool Congress faced mounting difficulty in preventing the social unrest from taking on a more overtly political character.

Against the backdrop of ongoing corruption allegations, a persistent jobs crisis, limited success in attracting major investments, and continued concerns over brain drain, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is now confronted with one of the most significant anti-incumbency challenges of her tenure.

Social Welfare Schemes

A range of social welfare schemes implemented by the TMC government is expected to play a key role in the upcoming elections. These initiatives, targeting unemployed youth, women, farmers, students, workers, and marginalised communities, have delivered electoral gains in previous polls and could once again influence the outcome.

Many of these programmes include direct cash transfers and other benefits delivered at the grassroots level, strengthening their impact among voters.

Industry And Employment

The opposition BJP has alleged a “flight of industry" from West Bengal, describing the state as an “industrial graveyard." Party leaders claim that over 6,000 companies have relocated from Bengal in the past 14 years and argue that only around 3 per cent of investment proposals made at the state’s business summits have actually materialised, turning the state into a “labour-exporting economy."

The TMC, however, rejects these charges and highlights what it calls the “Bengal model" of development, focused on MSME growth, infrastructure expansion, and comparatively lower unemployment. It cites an unemployment rate of around 3.6 per cent, below the national average, and points to an estimated GSDP growth of about 12 per cent, higher than the national average, as indicators of sustained economic momentum.

Meanwhile, economic stress in the jute belt districts of Hooghly, Howrah, and North 24 Parganas has emerged as a major concern. Raw material shortages led to mill closures and production cuts, resulting in job losses that have become a significant political issue in the region.

Bengali Sub-Nationalism

Before the SIR exercise gained political prominence in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) had already mounted an aggressive campaign, on the streets, in Parliament, and through legal channels, against what it described as coordinated attacks on Bengali-speaking migrants in BJP-ruled states.

The party’s recurring “Bohiragoto" (outsider) narrative against the BJP has proved electorally effective in recent years. The issue of Bengali sub-nationalism, framed around alleged migrant persecution, is seen as an extension of TMC’s broader attempt to position itself as the defender of Bengali “asmita" while politically isolating the BJP in the state.

In July last year, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee led a large rally in Kolkata protesting what the TMC called an “assault on Bengali identity" by the BJP. She has consistently criticised the party over incidents of alleged harassment, detention and deportation of Bengali migrants in various parts of the country, often on suspicion of them being Bangladeshi nationals.

The TMC has also pursued legal challenges in the Calcutta High Court and the Supreme Court against such alleged deportations of Bengali-speaking Indians, though with limited success. The repatriation of Sunali Bibi and her minor son, among six individuals previously deported, has been cited as one of the rare instances of relief secured through these efforts.

Infiltration

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in the Muslim-majority border district of Malda on January 17, he placed infiltration at the centre of his attack on the TMC government. He alleged that large-scale illegal migration had altered demographics, fuelled riots, and continued due to the ruling party’s “patronage and syndicate raj," making it clear that the BJP would foreground the “ghoospetiya" issue in its election campaign.

Against the backdrop of an intense pre-poll atmosphere and the contentious SIR “roll-cleansing" exercise, the BJP has strongly defended the process, arguing that it is necessary to identify “Bangladeshis and Rohingyas" residing across the border.

During a recent visit, Union Home Minister Amit Shah further sharpened the party’s stance on infiltration, saying that while “only names of infiltrators are being deleted" from voter lists at present, they would be “pushed out" if the party comes to power in the state. He also accused Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of encouraging infiltration for electoral gains.

The TMC, however, has rejected these allegations, calling the exercise politically motivated and disconnected from ground realities, and alleging that it is being used to target Muslim citizens in the state.

West Bengal Elections

Of the 294-member Bengal Assembly, the TMC in 2021 won 215 seats, up four seats from its tally of the 2016 edition of State polls, as against 77 seats won by the BJP, which improved its numbers by 74 seats.

The BJP’s strength in the State Assembly has now come down to 64, largely due to defections to the Trinamool Congress. The Indian Secular Front and the newly formed Aam Janata Unnayan Party hold one seat each. Meanwhile, three seats in the Assembly remain vacant following the deaths of sitting MLAs.

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