Google Got It Right: Search Trends Predicted Election Results Better Than Exit Polls

Last Updated:May 11, 2026, 19:44 IST

Previous studies have shown a positive correlation between Google Search trends and election outcomes.

The recent Assembly elections were, in many ways, an election of many firsts. The BJP ended Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year reign in Bengal with a decisive mandate, and actor Vijay’s TVK uprooted the traditional Dravidian model of governance in Tamil Nadu. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s popularity helped the BJP register a hat-trick in Assam, and the Left were left without a government in India after the UDF’s victory in Kerala.

However, Google’s search trends managed to predict the results better than the exit polls. Previous studies have shown a positive correlation between Google Search trends and election outcomes. This analysis of the recent elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Assam revealed that Google Search trends correctly identified the winning party in every state, even in scenarios where traditional exit polls missed the mark.

How Google Got It Right

The analysis is based on Google Search Trends for the specific dates each state went to the polls and is limited to searches originating from that state alone. All percentages reflect the comparative share between the major parties listed for that state, rather than the total overall vote share.

West Bengal: Google Search data successfully captured the differing intensities of the two polling phases. In Phase 1, the BJP dominated search interest (71% vs. TMC’s 30%), which translated to a 55% to 45% vote advantage. In Phase 2, the search gap noticeably narrowed (65% to 35%), reflecting what became a much tighter actual contest (BJP 51%, TMC 49%).

Tamil Nadu: The search data significantly outperformed traditional exit polls. While most exit polls predicted a lacklustre debut for Vijay’s TVK, search trends placed the party miles ahead at 64%, compared to DMK (24%) and AIADMK (12%). The final EVM results mirrored this exact hierarchy: TVK led with 43% of the comparative vote, followed by DMK at 30% and AIADMK at 26%.

Kerala: To avoid the statistical noise of Kerala’s complex alliance structures, I limited this to only the Congress and CPI(M). The search trend prediction here was almost exact. Google searches favoured the Congress (INC) by a 60:40 margin. The actual election results landed right next to those numbers, with the INC capturing 57% of the comparative vote to CPIM’s 43%.

Assam: While the Google search trends correctly predicted the winning party, it overestimated the scale of the victory. Google searches indicated a massive landslide for the BJP (76% to INC’s 24%). The BJP did secure a comfortable win, but the actual comparative vote share was much closer, settling at 56% to 44%.

While the precise margins of victory occasionally varied between search volumes and the pressing of the EVM buttons, Google Search Trends successfully and accurately predicted the winning parties and their finishing order across all four states.

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