How Long Can Iran Fight? Reports Say Missile Arsenal Shrinks, But West Asia War Drags On

Last Updated:March 31, 2026, 09:21 IST

Iran’s missile arsenal has been significantly reduced by US-Israeli strikes, but intelligence assessments indicate Tehran retains enough weapons to sustain the conflict.

Iran’s ability to continue fighting depends heavily on how long its missile and drone arsenal can sustain operations. According to Reuters, US intelligence assesses that only about one-third of Iran’s missile stockpile has been definitively destroyed, while another third may be damaged or hidden in underground facilities.

Estimates of Iran’s pre-war missile inventory vary widely.

Israeli military assessments suggest Iran possessed around 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching regional targets, while other analysts estimate the figure could have been as high as 6,000 missiles across different ranges.

Despite significant degradation, Iran has continued firing missiles at regional targets, demonstrating that its offensive capacity has not collapsed entirely.

Intelligence experts say Iran may still retain roughly 30 per cent of its missile capability, particularly through stockpiles stored in hardened underground facilities.

UNDERGROUND MISSILE CITIES EXTEND WAR CAPACITY

A key reason Iran can continue fighting is the scale of its underground military infrastructure.

Analysts say Tehran has spent decades building tunnels, bunkers and concealed launch sites designed to withstand airstrikes.

Investigations cited in recent media reports indicate the existence of extensive underground missile bases built deep within mountainous terrain, allowing Iran to shield critical weapons systems from aerial bombardment.

According to a Reuters analysis, neutralising Iran’s missile programme remains difficult because many launch systems are mobile and dispersed, including transporter-erector-launchers mounted on trucks.

These “shoot-and-scoot" tactics allow Iran to launch missiles quickly and relocate before counterstrikes arrive, a strategy commonly used by insurgent groups and asymmetric forces.

DECLINING RATE OF MISSILE FIRE SIGNALS STRATEGIC CONSERVATION

While Iran continues attacks, analysts say the rate of missile launches has dropped sharply since the early days of the war.

Data cited by Western military analysts suggests daily missile launches have fallen significantly compared to initial barrages, indicating either depletion of stockpiles or deliberate rationing to extend the duration of the conflict.

According to conflict trackers, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones during the early phase of the war, but has since shifted toward smaller, more targeted strikes.

Experts suggest the shift reflects Tehran’s effort to maintain deterrence while preserving its remaining inventory for a prolonged conflict scenario.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ GIVES IRAN STRATEGIC LEVERAGE

Beyond its missile arsenal, Iran’s ability to threaten global energy supply routes remains a major factor in how long it can sustain the conflict.

According to Associated Press, Tehran’s influence over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz allows it to disrupt the flow of oil and raise global prices, exerting economic pressure on Western governments.

The narrow waterway historically carries a significant portion of global oil shipments, making it a critical strategic chokepoint.

Recent developments indicate Iran has restricted maritime traffic in the strait, contributing to volatility in global energy markets and raising fears of wider economic disruption.

Analysts say this leverage allows Iran to inflict economic costs even if its conventional military strength weakens.

DRONES AND LOW-COST WEAPONS HELP OFFSET LOSSES

Iran’s reliance on relatively low-cost drones has also helped sustain its war effort.

Experts note that while advanced ballistic missiles are harder to replace quickly, simpler drone systems can be produced in larger numbers and used to overwhelm air defence systems.

Reports indicate that Iran has used a mix of ballistic missiles and drones to target regional infrastructure, complicating interception efforts and forcing adversaries to expend costly defensive munitions.

Military analysts say this cost imbalance allows Iran to continue exerting pressure even as its high-end arsenal declines.

WAR MAY SHIFT FROM INTENSITY TO ENDURANCE

Strategic experts believe Iran’s war doctrine increasingly emphasises endurance rather than decisive battlefield victory.

Iran’s missile programme has historically served as a deterrence tool designed to compensate for limitations in its air force and conventional military strength.

According to the Atlantic Council and other strategic think tanks, Tehran’s approach focuses on surviving long enough to raise the economic and political costs of the war for its adversaries.

With underground infrastructure intact and some missile capability remaining, analysts say Iran could continue limited strikes even as its arsenal gradually declines.

Although US and Israeli operations have damaged a significant portion of Iran’s military infrastructure, intelligence assessments indicate Tehran retains enough capability to prolong the conflict.

Experts caution that even a small number of remaining missiles can threaten high-value targets such as naval vessels or energy infrastructure, meaning the conflict’s duration may depend less on total arsenal size and more on strategic use of remaining weapons.

As long as Iran maintains the ability to disrupt shipping routes, launch intermittent missile strikes and leverage asymmetric tactics, analysts believe the conflict could continue despite the gradual depletion of its missile stockpile.

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