How One UK By-Election Could Decide Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Political Future

Last Updated:June 18, 2026, 12:14 IST

The Makerfield by-election could give Andy Burnham the parliamentary platform he needs to take on Keir Starmer and reshape Labour’s future.

A parliamentary election in a cluster of small towns in north-west England could decide much more than who represents the area in Britain’s House of Commons.

The by-election in Makerfield on Thursday could provide Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and one of the Labour Party’s most prominent politicians, with a route back to Parliament. A victory would also allow him to mount a possible challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the governing party.

That matters because Britain does not directly elect its prime minister. Voters elect members of Parliament, and the leader of the party that can command a majority in the House of Commons normally becomes prime minister. Therefore, if Burnham were to replace Starmer as Labour leader while the party retains its parliamentary majority, he could also become Britain’s next prime minister without an immediate general election.

Before any of that can happen, however, Burnham must win Makerfield.

Why Does Andy Burnham Need To Enter Parliament?

Burnham has served as mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017 but is not currently an MP. That has prevented him from directly challenging Starmer under Labour’s leadership system.

A Labour leadership contest can be triggered if the leader resigns or if a challenger secures the required support among the party’s MPs. Burnham must therefore first return to the House of Commons and establish that he has enough parliamentary backing to contest the leadership.

That opportunity emerged after Josh Simons, a Labour ally of Burnham who represented Makerfield, resigned from Parliament last month. His departure has triggered the by-election.

Labour’s governing body had blocked Burnham from contesting another vacant seat in February. But Starmer, weakened by falling public support and growing unrest within his government, was unable to prevent Burnham from securing the Labour nomination in Makerfield, CNN reported.

Seven ministers have resigned since Labour suffered heavy losses in May’s local elections, providing a stark indication of public dissatisfaction with Starmer’s government.

Why Is Keir Starmer Under Pressure?

Starmer led Labour to a landslide general election victory nearly two years ago, giving the party an overwhelming majority in Parliament after 14 years of Conservative-led governments. But the scale of that majority has not protected him from a steep decline in popularity.

Starmer came to power promising “change", but critics say his government has struggled to define what that change means in practical terms. It has reversed several policies, disappointed sections of Labour’s traditional voter base and faced tight constraints on public spending.

Labour is also losing voters in two different directions. Some progressive voters are moving towards the Green Party, while sections of its traditionally working-class base are being drawn to Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK.

Despite ministerial resignations and growing speculation about Starmer’s future, a leadership contest has not fully materialised. Burnham’s supporters believe that’s because the politician most capable of uniting the prime minister’s opponents has remained outside Parliament.

A Makerfield victory could change that calculation immediately.

Who Is Andy Burnham?

Burnham is frequently described as the “King of the North", a reference to both his political popularity and the identity he has built around north-west England.

He previously spent 16 years as the MP for the neighbouring constituency of Leigh and served in the Labour governments led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. His Cabinet roles included serving as health secretary under Brown.

Burnham unsuccessfully contested the Labour leadership in 2010 and again in 2015. In 2017, he left Parliament to become mayor of Greater Manchester.

His distance from Starmer’s government has also allowed him to avoid much of the blame for Labour’s national difficulties.

Why Does Makerfield Matter To Labour?

Makerfield is the official name of a parliamentary constituency made up of several towns near Wigan, roughly midway between Manchester and Liverpool. Locals do not generally describe the area itself as Makerfield.

The constituency was shaped by coal mining, steel, textile production and manufacturing. Those industries declined over several decades, leaving an economy now dominated by sectors such as construction, retail, education and healthcare.

“Demographically speaking, it’s a classic post-industrial constituency," Lotte Hargrave, a political science researcher at the University of Manchester, told CNN. “It’s older than the average place in the UK. It’s overwhelmingly white and British-born, it’s relatively low in terms of graduates, it’s high in home ownership and, crucially for Reform, it supported Brexit."

For much of the last century, such industrial and unionised communities formed the backbone of Labour’s electoral coalition. Makerfield has voted Labour for more than 100 years.

That loyalty can no longer be taken for granted.

Reform UK won 24 of the 25 council seats contested in the wider Wigan area during last month’s local elections. Local historian Peter Fleetwood described the outcome as “seismic".

The result showed how rapidly Reform has entered territory once considered safely Labour. It has also turned the by-election into a test of whether Burnham can recover voters who have abandoned his party.

What Happens If Burnham Loses?

Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, is a plumber and local councillor who has combined opposition to immigration with promises to defend the area’s community and “Christian heritage".

His campaign has faced scrutiny over historic sexist and homophobic posts on social media. Kenyon has said the posts predated his entry into politics.

Reform also faces competition from Restore Britain, another party further to its right that supports the large-scale deportation of migrants and has been promoted by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Its presence could divide the right-wing vote and make Burnham’s task easier.

But a Burnham defeat would still be devastating for Labour.

If one of the party’s most popular figures cannot retain a constituency that Labour has held for generations, its prospects in similar post-industrial seats would appear bleak. A Reform victory would suggest that Labour’s problems extend beyond Starmer’s personal unpopularity and reflect a deeper collapse of its traditional electoral base.

It could also damage Burnham’s claim that he is the leader capable of stopping Reform nationally.

What Happens If Burnham Wins?

A victory would return Burnham to Parliament and remove the most important procedural obstacle to a leadership bid.

Senior Labour figures and government ministers have travelled from London to campaign for him. Their presence supports the official effort to retain the seat but also demonstrates Burnham’s growing influence inside the party.

Burnham has avoided formally announcing a challenge and insists he is focused on winning the constituency. Yet a victory is expected to intensify demands for Starmer either to resign or face a challenge.

Burnham would still need to secure sufficient nominations from Labour MPs, and other contenders could enter the race. There is therefore no certainty that winning Makerfield would carry him directly into Downing Street.

The by-election nevertheless places about 76,000 eligible voters at the centre of a national struggle over Labour’s future.

They will decide whether Burnham receives his route back to Westminster, whether Starmer’s opponents acquire a credible candidate and whether Labour can still hold the kind of working-class constituency that once defined the party.

A win would not make Burnham prime minister. But it could start the process that ends Starmer’s premiership.

About the Author

Karishma Jain

Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at News18.com, writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follo...Read More

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