How West Bengal voted in 2021: a recap

The All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) secured victory in 215 of 294 seats in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, returning to power for a third consecutive term. Mamata Banerjee became the Chief Minister for a record third time.

Despite facing a thorough drubbing at the hands of TMC, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 77 seats, up from three seats in 2016. BJP recorded 37.97% vote share in 2021 polls, a significant rise from 10.17% in 2016 State Assembly elections.

In 2016, while Congress registered a vote share of 12.25%, CPI and CPI(M) had 1.45% and 19.75% vote shares. None of the three parties succeeded in registering a victory in a single seat in the State. 

BJP’s increasing vote share in the 2021 Assembly polls has another significance. Since the 2011 polls, the North Bengal region has been recognised as Trinamool’s bastion due to the party’s dominant vote share. This pertained to assembly seats such as Dinhata, Tufanganj, Natabari, Cooch Behar Dakshin, Dhupguri, Falakata, Sitalkuchi, Mathabhanga, and Maynaguri. However, in the 2021 polls, BJP secured victory in these seats. 

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For instance, BJP’s Bishal Lama secured the largest victory margin of 15% in North Bengal’s Kalchini seat, defeating rival TMC candidate Wilson Champramary in 2021. 

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TMC managed to secure victory in five seats in the North Bengal region (including Rajganj, Mal, Jalpaiguri, Mekliganj, Sitai) by a thin margin where BJP candidates finished as runners-up. 

However, in the South Bengal region, TMC pulled the electoral battle in its favour by winning 153 assembly seats. TMC swept the poll results clean in 11 seats of the Kolkata district, four seats of the Jhargram district and 16 seats of the Howrah district. The party’s stupendous poll show also extended to major districts such as North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Purba Medinipur, Paschim Medinipur, and Hooghly.

In the South 24 Paraganas district, TMC won 30 of 31 seats. This was closely followed by the party’s victory in 28 of 33 seats in North 24 Paraganas. In a major haul, the party sealed victory in 14 of 18 seats in Hooghly and 13 of 15 seats in Paschim Medinipur.

The 2021 assembly polls saw a razor-thin contest between the BJP and TMC, leading to a lesser number of seats with the highest victory margins. The narrow victory margin played a defining factor in the outcome of poll results. 

Sujapur assembly constituency recorded the highest victory margin of 63.05% in 2021 West Bengal Assembly polls. The seat was won by TMC’s MD Abdul Ghani, who secured 1.52 lakh votes against INC’s Isha Khan Choudhury, who got only 22 thousand votes. 

When it came to South Bengal, Matiaburz emerged as the constituency with the highest ever victory margin of 61.73%. TMC’s Abdul Khaleque Molla pulled a total of 1.51 lakh votes against trailing BJP candidate 31 thousand votes. 

Besides, Malatipur Assembly constituency recorded a victory margin of 50.09%. TMC’s Abdur Rahim Boxi secured 1.21 lakh votes against BJP’s Mousumi Das who managed to obtain only 34 thousand votes. 

In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election, razor-thin victories underlined a story of deep electoral battle. TMC won 37 seats within a 5% margin, with 18 seats coming under 2% margin, unveiling its struggle to thwart the BJP’s bursting poll presence in the state. On the other hand, the BJP secured victory in 32 seats within 5% vote margin, with 10 seats in the 1% margin band. This sheds light on how close the BJP was behind a dramatically different result. Interestingly, Mamata Banerjee faced the brunt of it as a candidate from Nandigram constituency. Ms. Banerjee’s rival, BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari defeated her by 0.86% vote margin.

Together, 69 constituencies, roughly one in six, were decided by margins that an entire neighborhood could have swung the results. 

CPI(M), which garnered 30% of the vote in 2011, declined steadily through 2016 and arrived in 2021 as a mundane force with barely 4.71%. CPI, never dominant, became almost invisible at 0.2%. Congress, the Left Front’s alliance partner in 2016, saw its modest peak of 12.25% that year unravel to just 3.03% in 2021, swallowed whole by a binary contest between TMC and BJP.

Since 1977, every party that has won the Salboni constituency in Paschim Medinipur has ruled West Bengal. The streak continues from the left’s rule in West Bengal since the late 70s to the present TMC reign. TMC’s Srikanta Mahata has held the seat since 2011, anchoring the way for the party’s victory. TMC’s vote share in Salboni peaked from 2.25% in 2011 to 23.67% in 2016, and eventually settled at 13.19% in 2021. In Bengal’s complex electoral geography, Salboni functions less like a constituency and more like a compass.