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India imported more Russian crude oil than ever before in June, shaking up global trade and proving just how quickly things can shift when geopolitics get messy.
Let’s talk numbers. Indian refiners brought in about 2.7 million barrels of Russian oil a day in June—that’s not just a new record, it’s a big jump from 2.13 million barrels per day in May. Suddenly, Russian oil made up more than half of all crude flowing into India. Why? Indian companies scrambled for alternative supplies after shipping routes in the Middle East got disrupted.
That disruption mainly came from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year. It’s a huge choke point for oil, usually handling about 20% of the world’s shipments. Closing it forced everyone to rethink where and how they move oil. Indian refiners didn’t hesitate—they leaned even harder into Russian shipments, which had been increasing anyway since Europe backed off following the Ukraine war.
You could see the change on the water. Tanker trackers noticed a flood of Russian ships going straight for Indian refinery hubs like Vadinar, Jamnagar, and Paradip. Analyst Anas Alhajji put it plainly: in his view, you’d expect a record month with that many ships showing up. The movement of these tankers turned into a sign—almost a warning—that trade patterns were fundamentally shifting.
But here’s a key point: India wasn’t actually buying a whole lot more oil overall. The country’s total crude imports were still around 4.9 million barrels per day, about the same as before. They just stopped buying from some old suppliers and swapped them out for Russia. It’s a textbook case of trade being rerouted by external shocks.
Looking ahead, things are still up in the air. There’s a shaky ceasefire, so oil prices aren’t spiking the way they were, but everyone expects shipping through the Gulf to stay unpredictable for now. Meanwhile, a key sanctions waiver that made these Russian imports smoother expired in June and hasn’t been renewed, raising some eyebrows. Even so, the consensus among traders and analysts is pretty clear—Russian crude will keep flowing to India, at least in the near future.
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