Monsoon Stalled: India Endures Its Fifth Driest June Since 1901 as El Niño Looms

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A sluggish monsoon threw India straight into trouble this June. After weeks of stalling, the rains finally came—but way too late and not nearly enough. IMD data for June 2026 shows the country picked up only 99.5 mm of rain, a big drop from the usual 165.3 mm. That’s a nearly 40% deficit—the worst June since 2014 and the fifth driest in more than a century.

The monsoon hit Kerala on June 4, already behind schedule, and then just… fizzled out. For two weeks, it barely moved, leaving big farming states in the lurch. Croplands soaked in heat, with rainfall gaps in central and western India hitting 59% at one point. Rains bounced back a bit at the end of June, but nowhere near enough to fix things.

This hit hard because June sets the tone for India’s summer crops. The kharif season depends on early rains, especially since nearly half the country’s farmland gets no irrigation—just rain. In core states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Karnataka, officials say sowing is far behind where it should be. Many farmers had no choice but to wait—and now face stressful decisions: delay planting and risk missing the season, or plant seeds in dry ground that may never come to life if the rain skips again.

“We need timely rains for paddy transplanting. Without it, yields will suffer,” said a farmer in Surat, Gujarat—a region slammed by deficient rainfall this year.

There’s no crop untouched. Rice, corn, pulses, cotton, soybeans—they’re all seeing impact. Many state governments are scrambling. They’re telling farmers to switch to shorter-duration seeds, stagger planting, and use emergency fuel subsidies to pull water through irrigation pumps.

Usually when June is dry, it’s just a few unlucky areas. Not this time. All four big climate regions in the country posted a deficit: Central India was down 54-57%, hurting soybean and cotton farmers. The east and northeast lost 41-44% of their normal rain—great news for drought, but terrible for paddy fields. Southern states lagged about 30%, and the northwest, already reeling from repeated heatwaves, got less than three-quarters of its normal rain, with temperatures topping 42°C.

It’s not just the farms. Less rain means more heat, less water, and more strain on people. The endless hot spells stretched on through June, making life miserable—especially for anyone working outside, and for older people who struggle in these conditions. With no rain or clouds to break the heat, city leaders started warning people to avoid being outdoors in the middle of the day.

Water levels in reservoirs across western and central India kept falling, setting off alarms for energy officials. Less water means less hydropower, so utilities might have to burn more coal and gas, and that could push up electricity bills for everyone. Economists are worried too: with weaker sowing and likely poorer harvests of staples—rice, pulses, and cooking oils—food prices could climb. That’s the last thing the government needs as it tries to keep inflation in check.

What made everything worse? A stubborn El Niño in the Pacific upset wind patterns and blocked the usual sea-borne moisture. There wasn’t even a single cyclone or major low-pressure system in the pre-monsoon months to drag in water-laden winds from the ocean.

July could bring relief. Meteorologists say the wind is shifting and the rains should finally get moving, especially across central and western states. The IMD expects rain to improve in early July, but warns that if El Niño sticks around—which it looks set to—patchy showers might not undo all the damage wrought by such a dry June.

Everyone’s on alert—farmers, city officials, and national planners. Water conservation is more critical than ever, and it’s clear this kind of unpredictable weather isn’t going away. People are bracing for a tough monsoon season ahead.

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