Is Iran Turning Oil Into A Weapon? US Intel Report Sheds Light On Tehran’s Strait Of Hormuz Strategy

Last Updated:April 04, 2026, 09:15 IST

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future.

Iran War News: Is Iran turning oil into a weapon? As tensions with the United States deepen, recent intelligence reports suggest Tehran is using its control over the Strait of Hormuz not just as a military advantage, but as an economic tool. By restricting one of the world’s most critical oil routes, Iran appears to be leveraging global energy markets to gain political pressure in the ongoing conflict. 

Recent US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. According to sources familiar with the reports, Tehran views its control over the key waterway as its most important leverage against the United States.

The strait carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil trade, making it one of the most critical energy routes globally. By maintaining pressure on this passage, Iran can influence global oil supply and prices. The findings suggest that Iran may continue to restrict movement through the strait to keep energy prices elevated and force US President Donald Trump to seek a quick resolution to the nearly five-week-long conflict, which remains unpopular with American voters.

The reports also indicate that instead of weakening Iran, the war may have strengthened its regional position by demonstrating its ability to threaten such a vital global route.

Trump’s changing position on reopening the Strait

Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, he suggested that the United States could take action, saying that with more time, the US could reopen the passage, take control of oil and profit from it.

At the same time, his position has not been consistent. While he has made reopening the strait a possible condition for a ceasefire, he has also called on Gulf countries and NATO allies to take the lead in ensuring the route is reopened.

A White House official said Trump is confident that the strait will be open soon and has made it clear that Iran should not be allowed to control shipping traffic after the war. However, the official also noted that Trump has pointed out that other countries have more at stake in keeping the route open than the United States.

Iran’s tactics to disrupt shipping

Since the conflict began on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has used a range of tactics to make the waterway unsafe for commercial use. These include attacking civilian ships, deploying mines and demanding passage fees from vessels.

These actions have made the route too risky and in many cases uninsurable for commercial shipping. As a result, traffic through the strait has been severely disrupted. This has pushed global oil prices to multi-year highs and created fuel shortages in countries that depend heavily on oil and gas supplies from the Gulf region.

Sources familiar with the intelligence reports say Iran is unlikely to give up this advantage soon. One source said that after experiencing the level of influence it now has over the strait, Tehran is expected to hold on to it.

Economic and political fallout

The disruption in energy supply has wider consequences. Rising oil prices are increasing the risk of inflation in the United States, which could create political challenges for Trump. This comes at a time when he is facing weak poll numbers and preparing for mid-term congressional elections in November.

Experts say Iran recognises that its ability to control or disrupt the strait gives it significant influence over global energy markets. This leverage allows it to shape economic conditions far beyond the region.

High risks in military response

Many experts warn that any attempt to reopen the strait through military force would be highly risky. The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, measuring about 21 miles at its tightest point, with shipping lanes just 2 miles wide in each direction. This makes vessels and any military presence easy targets.

Even if US forces manage to secure parts of Iran’s southern coast or nearby islands, Iran could continue to control the situation. Experts say the Revolutionary Guard could use drones and missiles launched from deep inside the country to strike ships or military assets.

According to experts, even one or two drone attacks could be enough to disrupt traffic and discourage vessels from passing through the area.

Long-term leverage and negotiation challenges

Experts believe Iran is unlikely to surrender its hold over the strait even after the conflict ends. It may try to use this leverage to secure long-term guarantees on security and deterrence in any agreement with the United States.

There are also indications that Iran could seek direct financial benefits. Charging commercial ships passage fees could become a way to fund reconstruction efforts after the war.

This situation is expected to complicate negotiations between the two sides. With Iran holding a powerful position over a critical global trade route, any talks are likely to be difficult and prolonged.

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