JD Vance Or Marco Rubio? Who Could Be Donald Trump’s Successor In 2028

Last Updated:April 27, 2026, 16:17 IST

As Donald Trump weighs his successor, JD Vance leads in polls, but Marco Rubio’s growing standing is reshaping the contest.

The question of who inherits US President’s Donald Trump’s political mantle in 2028 is no longer a distant one. Even as the next presidential election remains two years away, conversations inside the White House and within the Republican base are already circling around two names: JD Vance and Marco Rubio.

Trump himself has not endorsed a successor. But his view could prove decisive when the time comes. At the same time, insights from voter focus groups indicate that the choice may not be as straightforward as it once appeared.

For months, Vance was widely seen as the natural heir to Trump’s “America First" movement. Now, Rubio’s growing influence inside the administration, and a perceptible shift in how some Republican voters view him, is complicating that assumption.

Why Is Marco Rubio Suddenly In The 2028 Conversation?

Inside Trump’s inner circle, Rubio’s rise is being framed as a significant turnaround. Once criticised as too hawkish and too aligned with the Republican establishment, he is now being described by senior officials as a credible contender.

According to Politico, conversations within the West Wing increasingly include Rubio as a “viable option" to succeed Trump. A senior White House official described him as “loyal, wicked smart, articulate and very seasoned," adding that he is “a winner."

His proximity to Trump appears to be a key factor. Serving simultaneously as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, Rubio operates at the centre of the administration’s foreign policy apparatus. During Trump’s first term, former White House press secretary Sean Spicer said this dual role has given him “a lot of access and face time with the president — and with MAGA," calling it “huge" for his standing.

Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz cast Rubio’s political evolution in explicitly ideological terms, saying he “chose the route of embracing MAGA and becoming one of MAGA’s staunchest allies and advocates" after his 2016 campaign loss.

How Do The Polls Compare Rubio And Vance?

Despite Rubio’s growing visibility, JD Vance continues to lead the field in early indicators of Republican preference.

Polling cited by Politico shows that Vance still holds a commanding advantage, with a CPAC straw poll placing him at 53 per cent support, even though that marks a drop from 61 per cent the previous year. In the same poll, Rubio recorded a sharp increase to 35 per cent, up from just 3 per cent earlier. A YouGov survey reflected a similar pattern, with Vance at 63 per cent and Rubio at 42 per cent, compared to 65 per cent and 33 per cent respectively in September last year.

The numbers suggest that while Vance remains the frontrunner, Rubio’s rise is both recent and significant enough to have altered internal calculations.

What Is Driving Rubio’s Standing Inside The Administration?

Rubio’s current influence is tied not just to his titles, but to the scope of his responsibilities. According to Politico, he has played a central role in shaping the administration’s approach to the Western Hemisphere, including operations in Venezuela and Cuba, as well as efforts tied to broader regional strategy.

His actions have also included revoking thousands of visas and implementing a “one-strike" policy, allowing authorities to cancel visas of individuals found violating US law or supporting terrorism.

At the same time, Rubio has avoided the kind of public missteps or internal disagreements that have affected other officials. He has not been seen as operating at cross purposes with Trump, nor as lacking enthusiasm for key policy decisions.

This combination has helped him build credibility within both the White House and parts of the MAGA ecosystem.

Are Republican Voters Also Warming To Rubio?

Insights from focus groups reported by The Atlantic suggest that Rubio’s appeal is extending beyond Washington.

Participants across different voter groups described him in notably positive terms. A Georgia voter said, “Marco Rubio, I think, is an amazing dude," calling him “a family man and still a stand-up politician" who is “about putting America first." A Republican voter from Texas described him as “a real statesman in my eyes," while another participant from Florida said Rubio “is doing great as secretary of state" and “will be a great president too."

Some voters pointed to his multiple roles as evidence of competence. “He’s wearing multiple hats right now," said a Trump voter from West Virginia. “I think he’s doing a good job in his role. I think he speaks well."

Others framed his appeal in contrast to the broader administration. One California voter said that “as it relates to defense and international policy — he seems the most normal," while another participant described him as “more human than a lot of the other characters."

A recurring perception in these groups is that Rubio functions as an “adult in the room," benefiting from comparisons with more polarising or controversial figures.

Why Is JD Vance Facing Criticism Among Some Voters?

The same focus group discussions indicate that JD Vance is encountering growing scepticism among sections of the electorate that supported him.

Several participants questioned his consistency and ideological positioning. One voter said, “Since he’s entered politics, I don’t have a clear sense of what he personally stands for." Another remarked that Vance “seemed like an interesting figure" earlier, but argued that “the well is poisoned," adding that he appears to have adopted positions to “curry favor" and “secure his position."

A Gen Z Trump voter was more direct, saying, “I just don’t like Vance a lot. I think he has flip-flopped on issues," adding that “what he was about" a few years ago differs significantly from his current stance.

His recent political trajectory, including his positioning on the Iran conflict and his role in diplomatic efforts that did not succeed, has also shaped these perceptions. For voters who prioritise authenticity, the sense of inconsistency appears to be a significant drawback.

Does Rubio Still Face Resistance Within MAGA?

Despite these gains, Rubio’s position within the Republican landscape is not without complications.

Some within the party remain wary of his earlier policy positions, particularly his past support for a more interventionist foreign policy and immigration reform. Former Trump adviser Steve Cortes said that while Rubio “speaks MAGA," he remains “much more of an establishment Republican," questioning whether that approach can energise voters in a populist political environment.

There is also a structural constraint on his candidacy. Rubio has said he would not challenge Vance in a primary, meaning his path to the nomination could depend on whether that position changes or whether the political landscape shifts.

How Decisive Will Trump Be In Choosing A Successor?

Trump himself has been informally weighing the choice, asking aides whether Vance or Rubio would be the better successor. He has not indicated a preference and is unlikely to do so until closer to the election cycle. However, his endorsement carries significant weight within the Republican Party and could reshape the field.

As one Republican operative told Politico, an increasingly popular figure like Rubio “could be elevated to the top spot" if Trump were to back him.

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