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With public campaigning for the Assembly elections set to end on Tuesday evening, the 73 segments in north Kerala spread across Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad, and Thrissur districts constitute a political mosaic where every constituency tells a different electoral story.
The region has become a battleground of intense, granular contest, with the stakes exceptionally high as Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and six of his Cabinet colleagues fight not only to retain their seats but to transform Malabar into a high-profile referendum on the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government.
In the absence of a clear wave either for or against the ruling LDF or the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the political terrain remains volatile with undercurrents of communal polarisation and demographics-influenced outcomes.
The UDF is campaigning on a platform of reform drawing optimism from its successes in the three-tier local body polls held last December which, its poll managers believe, has laid the groundwork for a comeback. However, the LDF is banking on its governance record and a disciplined organisational apparatus.
Personal turn
Earlier, the UDF campaign had taken a personal turn. A wounded K. Sudhakaran, MP, is still a central figure after being deprived of his chance to contest from his stronghold in Kannur due to the party’s policy against fielding sitting MPs. While Mr. Sudhakaran has officially fallen in line, the initial ecchymosis has left a mark on the local campaign trail.
Simultaneously, the Congress has sharpened its ideological attack, alleging a secret deal between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the CPI(M). They claim the two parties have reached an adjustment to defeat the UDF, pointing to the perceived lack of Central agency pressure on State-level corruption cases.
Incidentally, a glaring subplot in this election is the emergence of CPI(M)-dissidents-turned candidates in Kannur and Palakkad districts. Although they are receiving backing from the UDF in an attempt to fracture the Left’s voter base, current analysis suggests these expelled leaders are unlikely to shift the needle in a big way.
Like elsewhere in the State, the campaign is meticulously hedged on a variety of local and national issues defined by socio-economic factors, State-led development initiatives, the efficacy of welfare schemes, the pressing challenges of human-wildlife conflict, unemployment and price rise and even the personal merits of individual candidates.
The lingering impact of the Sabarimala issue also continue to influence voter sentiment, along with concerns over communal overtures and the tactical understanding with Jamaat Islami Hind and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI). All three fronts are relying on rigorous political metrics to secure their respective strongholds.
Kasaragod district has traditionally seen mixed political trends, with the LDF remaining strong in the central segments, while the UDF dominates parts of the northern belt. In Manjeswaram, BJP former State president K. Surendran is leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) brigade in a seat known for wafer-thin margins where the party has repeatedly come close to victory. In the Kasaragod segment, BJP candidate M.L. Ashwini is in direct fight with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), making it one of the few constituencies in Kerala where the contest is largely bipolar between the BJP and the UDF.
In Kannur, the UDF has mounted an aggressive challenge in several constituencies. The UDF presently holds two constituencies—Peravur and Irrikur—which are likely to witness a real nip and tuck contest this time. The LDF decision to field K.K. Shailaja has made Peravur a keenly watched constituency.
Emboldened by their strong performance in the three-tier local body elections, the Congress-IUML combine enters the Kozhikode district contest with renewed confidence, eyeing an improvement in its tally from the present two out of 13 seats. The contest carries particular import for the Congress, which has gone without a sitting legislator in the district for two decades. Kuttiyadi, Perambra, and Nadapuram are the segments that merit close attention.
In Wayanad, the Congress looks to be on comfortable ground in Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta, even as the CPI(M) retains a meaningful edge in Mananthavady.
Firmly with UDF
Of all the districts in the State, Malappuram appears firmly set on the UDF’s course, with the IUML confidently holding the reins. In the previous election, the coalition swept 12 out of the 16 seats. Nilambur, claimed then by LDF-backed Independent P.V. Anvar, has since thrown in its lot with the UDF and Mr. Anvar now finds himself pitted against Minister for Public Works and Tourism P.A. Mohamed Riyas in Kozhikode’s Beypore. The picture is hazy in Tanur. In Tirur, however, a bruising, closely contested battle awaits Minister V. Abdurahiman. Ponnani, Perinthalmanna, and Thavanur, meanwhile, offer their own share of keen rivalry. Among Palakkad district’s 12 segments, it is the Palakkad constituency that has seized the imagination of political observers across the State. BJP candidate Sobha Surendran is sparing no effort, marshalling every resource at her disposal in a determined bid for victory. In Malampuzha, the contours of a three-cornered fight are becoming increasingly defined. Ottappalam, too, warrants close attention where ousted CPI(M) local leader P.K. Sasi runs with UDF support and it is going to be a test of his political standing.
For nearly a decade, the LDF held an iron grip over Thrissur, sweeping 12 of the 13 Assembly seats both in 2016 and 2021 and reducing the UDF to a marginal presence. But the script cracked in 2024. Riding on the personal appeal of Suresh Gopi, the NDA staged a historic Lok Sabha breakthrough in Thrissur, unsettling the State’s established bipolar politics. Yet, subsequent local body polls saw the NDA struggle to translate that victory into sustained grassroots gains.
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