Kerala polls: Star performer vs storm trooper

With less than 10 days left for assembly elections, Pathanapuram, long considered a stronghold of Kerala Congress B leader and five-time MLA K B Ganesh Kumar, is showing signs of a more competitive contest, driven by social and political undercurrents.Kumar, who retained the seat irrespective of switching fronts, secured a 49.09% vote share (67,276 votes) in 2021 to defeat Congress’s Jyothikumar Chamakkala, who polled 52,940 (38.63%). BJP’sVSJathinDevsecured 12,398 (9%). Kumar had bagged 74,429 votes (52.39%) in 2016, indicating a gradual cut in margin.A key factor this time is the visible strain in his relationship with a section of Nair Service Society (NSS).

NSS leadership recently dissolved Pathanapuram taluk union, where he served as president, following a revolt by a majority of committee members. The decision came after a prolonged internal dissent, including criticism over his leadership style and alleged issues related to fund utilisation. While NSS does not officially dictate voting patterns, its organisational influence in parts of the constituency makes the rift politically significant.

Equally important is Kumar’s straining ties with a section of Christian community. His recent remarks against former chief minister Oommen Chandy, a widely respected figure among Christians, have drawn criticism from both Congress workers and the community alike. Congress campaign has also sought to make the most of Chandy’s legacy, with his daughter Maria Oommen visiting a picturesque constituency to campaign for Chamakkala.

His youngest daughter, Achu Oommen, is also set to visit the constituency, as part of the party’s efforts to consolidate support by tapping into the enduring goodwill associated with Chandy among voters.Kumar’s electoral strength has historically stemmed from a cross-party personal vote base, built during his earlier stint with the UDF. A section of Congressleaning voters continued to back him even after his shift to the LDF, contributing to his consistent victories.

However, ground reports now suggest that some of these voters, particularly among NSS and Christian communities, may be showing signs of returning to their traditional political alignments.Even a modest shift of 3-4% among these segments could significantly narrow the gap, making the contest tighter than in previous elections.Sensing an opportunity, Congress-led UDF has stepped up its campaign, pointing to increased participation of NSS-linked voters in its meetings.

However, UDF’s challenge lies in converting the sentiment into votes. Chamakkala, despite spending the past few years building a base in the constituency, is yet to generate the level of personal connect enjoyed by Kumar.Several voters said Chamakkala lacks the charisma and accessibility associated with Kumar, though they acknowledged that a strong final-phase campaign could alter momentum.NDA, meanwhile, remains a peripheral force, with its vote share steady at 8-9%.

With limited organisational depth, it is unlikely to emerge as a decisive factor. Locals note that any weakening of the UDF is more likely to benefit Kumar than translate into gains for the BJP, keeping the contest largely bipolar.Local feedback also suggests that past personal controversies involving allegations by Kumar’s wife are unlikely to significantly influence voting behaviour, with many voters indicating that such issues have long been factored into their perception of the leader.“The issue with Kumar’s wife is his personal matter. These types of issues have emerged earlier also, but that didn’t change voters’ support for him. In fact, when we discuss polls with our friends, everybody says the recent issue wouldn’t be very effective. Even if people decide to vote for Congress, it will be due to personal connection,” a local resident and social activist Manju D.Nasser N, a businessman from Pathanapuram, said: “Since 2001, Kumar has been campaigning in an open jeep and directly meeting people. This is what Congress candidate Jyothikumar is also doing now. The recent NSS issue and remarks on Oommen Chandy have created a negative image, but that may be short-term. If Congress doesn’t seize this opportunity with strong grassroots work, Ganesh Kumar will simply take the winning lap,”