Lalu's 'Owaisi' dilemma: Will RJD align with AIMIM for Bihar polls? Seemanchal holds the key

NEW DELHI: Ahead of the big Bihar battle, which is just a few months away, opposition parties are burning the midnight oil to piece together a winning arithmetic against the BJP-led ruling NDA.

But one variable that continues to throw off their number game, as always, is Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.AIMIM's Bihar chief Akhtarul Iman, who is also the party's lone MLA in the state, wrote a letter to RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, pitching to contest polls unitedly against the NDA.

Will Lalu Yadav accommodate the AIMIM in the Mahagathbandhan? Well, the answer is intricately layered. While AIMIM may be anti-BJP, many in the opposition bloc see Owaisi’s party as complicating their fight.Traditionally, Yadavs and Muslims have formed the core voter base of Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), while AIMIM draws most of its support from Muslim voters. A tie-up with AIMIM would mean the RJD conceding part of that space to Owaisi, a move that may not be politically prudent for either Lalu or Tejashwi Yadav.If the RJD chooses to shrug off AIMIM’s alliance offer, the move may not come without consequences.

In the 2020 Bihar assembly polls, Owaisi’s party made a surprise mark, winning five seats in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region, which the Mahagathbandhan was hopeful of winning.In doing so, AIMIM dented the prospects of the RJD and Congress by cutting into their Muslim vote base, which makes up roughly 17 per cent of the electorate. A closer look at the results shows that AIMIM won seats that might otherwise have gone to the grand alliance.

There were few, if any, constituencies where AIMIM’s presence helped the NDA directly by splitting votes.Here's how the number game unravelled in the five seats that AIMIM won in 2020.In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, AIMIM fielded 18 candidates across the state, with 14 of them contesting in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region. Out of these 14, the party won five seats. These included Amour and Baisi in Purnea district, where Akhtarul Iman and Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad secured victories, respectively.

In Kishanganj, AIMIM won Kochadhaman and Bahadurganj, represented by Muhammad Izhar Asfi and Mohammad Anzar Nayeemi. The fifth win came from Jokihat in the Araria district, where Shahnawaz Alam emerged victorious. The results marked AIMIM’s emergence as a serious player in Bihar’s Muslim belt.Lalu Yadav’s aversion to teaming up with AIMIM was evident when, just two years after their 2020 victory, four of AIMIM’s five MLAs switched sides and joined the RJD.

Despite being the political nemesis of the BJP, both the RJD and AIMIM trade charges at each other, with Lalu's party accusing Owaisi's party of being the "B-team" of the BJP."The Bihar election will decide the political direction of the country. AIMIM wants to join the Mahagathbandha, but their track record suggests that they have worked as the BJP's B-team to benefit the ruling party," RJD spokesperson Mritunjay Tiwari told TOI.On the possibility of an alliance with AIMIM, he said: “The final decision has to be taken by Lalu Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, and the leaders of the Mahagathbandhan,” adding that there would be no split in votes this time, given the “Tejashwi tsunami in the state.”A similar bittersweet sentiment was echoed by the AIMIM. While the party strongly denounced the "B-team" tag attached to it by the RJD, it appeared more determined to defeat the BJP."It’s their old habit to label us as the B team, C team, D team... but they have no evidence or data. They blame us for covering up their own flaws. We didn’t contest in Haryana - so why did they (Congress) lose there? We didn’t fight in most states, yet they still lost,” AIMIM spokesperson Waris Pathan told TOI. "Our objective in fighting elections is to defeat the BJP and prevent the division of secular votes. Even the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is contesting, but no one questions which team they belong to," he added.

What if Lalu declines AIMIM's offer?

In the event that the RJD declines to join hands with AIMIM, Waris Pathan said: “Even if they don’t respond, we will contest the election. Nobody can stop us.”With a renewed alliance pitch and a push for broader caste and regional representation, AIMIM is eyeing a larger, more inclusive role in Bihar’s political landscape. The party has already announced Rana Ranjit, a Rajput from East Champaran, as its candidate from the Dhaka assembly constituency, a move aimed at expanding its appeal beyond its traditional Muslim voter base.More non-Muslim candidates are expected to follow, as AIMIM works to shed its image as a niche outfit. The party has also intensified its outreach across Bihar, focusing on core issues like flooding, high infant mortality, corruption, migration, unemployment, and human trafficking, particularly in neglected regions like Seemanchal.

As Bihar’s political chessboard resets for yet another showdown, AIMIM's knock at the Grand Alliance’s door may continue to hold a whiff of suspicion for the bloc. However, whether Lalu Yadav lets Owaisi in or keeps him out, the party’s presence is expected to stir the pot, especially in Seemanchal. For now, AIMIM is playing both outsider and aspirant, pitching unity, denying labels, and preparing for a solo flight if need be. In Bihar’s ruthless electoral math, even a small miscalculation can swing the result.