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3 min readNew DelhiUpdated: Jan 29, 2026 07:48 PM IST
Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic will face each other in Australian Open 2026 semifinal. (PHOTO: AP)
Novak Djokovic takes on Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open semifinal on Friday, and starts as the distinct underdog. He was massively fortunate to reach the final four thanks to a fourth-round walkover and Lorenzo Musetti’s retirement from their quarterfinal with injury despite leading by two sets. Additionally, this is a matchup that really does not favour the Serb; he has lost each of the last five meetings against Sinner and failed to win a set in the last three.
But there is one area where Djokovic’s prowess is still elite. And Sinner has shown a slight weakness. Across four completed matches that Djokovic has played at the Australian Open so far, he has won 58.5% of all the points that he has played while returning second serves. Meanwhile, through the five matches that he has played at this tournament, Sinner has won 55.4% of the points behind his won second serve.
Second serve factor
The minuscule edge is simple reading: Djokovic wins a shade more than half the second serves he returns, Sinner wins a shade more than half the second serves he plays in. But the slight edge could have an outsized impact on their semifinal on Friday if the Italian doesn’t get his serves right on Friday.
PREVIEW | Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner: Serbian legend will have to make his own luck in Australian Open semifinal
Sinner’s serve is not a weakness; its reliability has often been a strength. But he has shown slight tentativeness in making first serves over the past few months; his first-serve success rate stands at 65.4% in the tournament. That is average but nothing to write home about.
And when he does continually miss it and has to throw in second serves, they are often safe and predictable enough for opponents to latch onto them and make him pay. It’s not a mere coincidence that in the only match in which he visibly struggled in Melbourne this week, due to heat and cramping and a spirited opponent in American Eliot Spizziri in a four-setter in the third round, he won just 43% of the points behind his second serve. In last year’s US Open final, which he lost in four sets to Carlos Alcaraz, he won only 48% of the points behind his second serve.
Age and a weakened physicality may have led to a slight drop off in other parts of his game, but Djokovic still remains a razor-sharp returner. He will be ready to take advantage of any lapses in that area of Sinner’s usually consistent and high-level game.
Namit Kumar is a Senior Sports Correspondent for The Indian Express, based in New Delhi. He is known for his versatile reporting across several major sports disciplines. Professional Profile Specializations: He covers a wide variety of sports including tennis, football, cricket, and motorsports. Focus: His writing often delves into the finer details and technical analysis of the sports he covers. Social Media: You can find him on X (formerly Twitter) at @namitkumar_17. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) Namit’s recent work focuses heavily on international cricket series and domestic tournaments, as well as high-profile global tennis events: International Cricket (India vs South Africa Series): "Intelligence, skill, and heart: How Arshdeep Singh took out Reeza Hendricks" (Dec 15, 2025) — A detailed analysis of Arshdeep's tactical comeback in the T20I series. "How India's seamers froze South Africa in chilly Dharamshala" (Dec 14, 2025). "Why India's T20I captain Suryakumar Yadav and vice-captain Shubman Gill losing form, is the start of a blunt headache" (Dec 12, 2025) — An analytical piece on the statistics and form of India's leadership duo. "Quinton de Kock dismantles Indian bowling combination with silent savagery" (Dec 11, 2025). Domestic Cricket (Ranji Trophy): "Ranji Trophy: J&K conquer Kotla and Delhi for first time" (Nov 11, 2025) — Reporting on the historic first win for Jammu & Kashmir over Delhi in the tournament's history. "What makes J&K pacer Auqib Nabi special" (Nov 8, 2025) — A profile on the pacer's accuracy and swing. "Unearthing the next Virat Kohli still a while away but Delhi's young batting talent full of promise" (Oct 24, 2025). Tennis and Golf: "Jannik Sinner's winter-time madness: How Italian refined his game to beat Alcaraz" (Nov 17, 2025) — A deep dive into Sinner’s technical improvements following his US Open loss. "Everyone's come to watch Rory McIlroy but keep an eye out for 'people's champion' Tommy Fleetwood" (Oct 17, 2025). Football Tactics: "Why are long throw-ins giving football defenders and lawmakers a headache?" (Nov 2, 2025) — An analytical piece on the evolving strategies surrounding throw-ins in modern football. Reporting Style Namit is active in covering the Delhi sports scene, providing detailed match reports for international cricket matches and Ranji Trophy fixtures at the Arun Jaitley Stadium. He also provides on-the-ground reporting for happenings in the city, such as his recent coverage of the DP World India Championship golf event. Additionally, he actively writes on tennis, analysing matches and reporting on major events, especially during the Grand Slam tournaments. ... Read More
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