After the late surge of rain during the fag end of August, the active monsoon showers will take a short break for a couple of days before gaining momentum with the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. The system which formed over the South China Sea is expected to cross over to the Bay of Bengal during the first week of September and is likely to intensify into a well-marked system in the following days, activating active monsoon conditions all over the country, including the core monsoon regions on the west coast of the country.
This is expected to increase the rainfall activity in north Kerala and parts of central Kerala districts during the days preceding Onam. The extended rain forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department forecasts heavy rain during the first week of September in many parts of the State. Already, the monsoon trough runs south of its normal position. This, coupled with the fresh low-pressure area and remnants of the previous system, will together contribute to the enhanced rainfall activity during Onam days.