Rainfall strongest environmental factor linked to elephant occurrence in southern Western Ghats: CWS study

The Centre for Wildlife Studies (CWS), in a new research study conducted in the southern Western Ghats region of Karnataka and Kerala, has found that rainfall was the strongest environmental factor linked to reported elephant occurrence in both States.

The study titled ‘Integrating Ecological Modelling and Local Knowledge to Understand Elephant Occurrence and Human-Elephant Interactions in the Southern Western Ghats’ examines where people and Asian elephants are most likely to overlap across the southern Western Ghats and how that overlap may shift by 2030.

In 2022, 507 community residents were interviewed across villages surrounding the Bandipur and Nagarahole National Parks and the Palakkad and Mannarkkad forest divisions.

The CWS said rainfall emerged as the single strongest environmental factor linked to reported elephant occurrence in both States, and that the relationships were often complex rather than following simple straight lines.

Land use factor

“Human land use mattered too, but in revealing ways. In Karnataka, areas of human settlement were positively associated with reported elephant presence, suggesting that elephants there continue to use landscapes close to people. The authors interpret this cautiously: elephants appear to tolerate a certain amount of human pressure, but likely only up to a threshold beyond which they retreat,” the CWS said.

The study also found that land-cover mapping showed an increase in human settlements and a decline in dense vegetation between 2012 and 2022.

“In the Karnataka study area, the area classified as human settlement rose by about 31% while dense vegetation declined slightly; in Kerala, settlement area increased by roughly 16%. When the researchers projected these trends forward to 2030, the modelled patterns of elephant occurrence became more fragmented and harder to predict, and in Kerala, the proximity to protected areas was strongly associated with where elephants were likely to occur,” the CWS said.

Community knowledge

What stood out was how well and deeply local communities understand elephant movement, often noticing shifts in their behaviour and responses. “By bringing these two aspects together, we were able to build a much richer picture of where and why elephants move through these landscapes. The same conditions that make an area attractive to elephants, including rainfall, water, and proximity to forests for food requirements, are often the conditions people extensively depend on to survive,” said the CWS.

“As these landscapes continue to change, the challenge is not just predicting where elephants will go, but ensuring that people and elephants can continue to share these spaces safely, for generations to come,” said Simran Prasad, lead author and postdoctoral fellow at the CWS.