Rebels, merger and anti-defection: What are Uddhav Sena's options now?

As Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) stares at a fresh split, the party leadership is strategising its next course of action against the rebel MPs who are allegedly preparing to align with the rival Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde. While the UBT camp is weighing both legal and political countermeasures, senior leader Sanjay Raut has already signalled an aggressive response, warning of "Operation Tudwa" (bash up) against the defectors.

The unfolding crisis has set the stage for another battle over the anti-defection law and the future of Shiv Sena (UBT)'s parliamentary strength.

According to sources, the first option being considered by the Uddhav camp is to seek the disqualification of the rebel MPs under the anti-defection provisions contained in the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution.

Under the Tenth Schedule, MPs and MLAs can be disqualified if they voluntarily give up the membership of the political party on whose ticket they were elected. However, the law provides an exception in cases of a merger. A key legal question that remains contentious is whether a merger can be validly claimed solely on the basis of support from two-thirds of the members of a legislature party, or whether such a merger must also involve the "original political party." The issue continues to be sub-judice.

Any challenge mounted by the UBT camp is likely to trigger a prolonged legal and constitutional battle, as the matter ultimately falls within the jurisdiction of the Speaker and hinges on the interpretation of the anti-defection law.

The UBT leaders Ravi Sawant, Sanjay Raut and Ravindra Desai have already met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and urged him to ensure that the original party's position is heard before any claim by dissident MPs to form a separate faction or seek recognition is entertained.

The Uddhav camp has also cited the Supreme Court's landmark judgment in the case of Subhash Desai vs Maharashtra Governor judgment, which emerged from the 2022 split in the undivided Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde. While the court did not restore the Maha Vikas Aghadi government headed by Uddhav Thackeray, it delivered several significant findings that strengthened the constitutional position of the Thackeray faction.

Among its key observations, the Supreme Court held that for the purposes of the Tenth Schedule, the relevant unit is the political party and not merely the legislature party. The court also clarified that the defence of a "split" is no longer available under the anti-defection framework, meaning legislators cannot escape disqualification merely by claiming that they represent a large breakaway faction within a party.

The immediate question now is how the Speaker responds to the rival claims of the rebel MPs and the objections raised by the UBT leadership.

The crisis deepened on Thursday after six of Shiv Sena (UBT)'s nine Lok Sabha MPs skipped a crucial meeting convened by the party leadership, fuelling speculation that they are preparing to formally align with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Only MPs Arvind Sawant, Anil Desai and Rajabhau Waje attended the meeting, along with Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut. The absent MPs were Nagesh Aashtikar, Sanjay Deshmukh, Sanjay Jadhav, Sanjay Dina Patil, Omprakash Rajenimbalkar and Bhausaheb Wakchaure.

Following the meeting, the party announced that show-cause notices would be issued to the six MPs. Arvind Sawant, the party's leader in the Lok Sabha, said the lawmakers would be given seven days to explain their absence, failing which the party would approach the Speaker seeking their disqualification under the anti-defection law.

The Uddhav camp is also preparing a broader legal strategy and examining all available remedies to challenge any attempt by the dissident MPs to secure recognition as a separate faction.

Meanwhile, sources said the six rebel MPs have already signed a letter seeking a merger with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and submitted it to the Speaker. However, the process is understood to be incomplete, with the Speaker's office expected to verify the claims, including through physical confirmation by some of the MPs, before taking a final decision. UBT leaders have challenged the dissidents to make the purported merger letter public.

The strength of the rebel camp will be central to the dispute. With Shiv Sena (UBT) currently holding nine Lok Sabha seats, a group of six MPs would constitute the two-thirds threshold often invoked in merger-related claims under the anti-defection framework. The Uddhav camp, however, has maintained that the rival faction's claim of commanding six MPs has not yet been officially verified.

The latest developments represent the most serious challenge to Uddhav Thackeray's leadership since the 2022 rebellion led by Eknath Shinde, which split the undivided Shiv Sena and brought down the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra.

- Ends