Strait of Hormuz disruption: War chokes Middle East supply, oil prices spike globally

As the Middle East conflict enters its third week, rising tensions are pushing global oil prices higher. Crude from the Middle East has seen the sharpest spike, becoming the world’s most expensive oil as disruptions to key supply routes continue.

According to a Reuters report, S&P Global Platts assessed cash Dubai crude at $153.25 per barrel for May-loading cargoes on Monday, marking an all-time high and overtaking Brent’s previous peak of $147.50 per barrel recorded in 2008. The surge has also pushed Dubai’s premium to swaps to $56.01 per barrel, even as trading slows due to the US and Israeli war on Iran.The spike in key benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman crude is significantly raising costs for Asian refiners, who rely on these grades to price millions of barrels imported into the region.

In response, several refiners are either cutting operating rates or looking beyond the Middle East for alternative supplies.Oman crude futures have followed a similar trajectory, hitting a record $147.79 per barrel. Its premium to Dubai swaps rose to $50.57 per barrel.Despite these highs, market participants say the benchmarks no longer reflect broader market realities. A wide price gap has emerged between Dubai crude and Murban futures, which settled at $111.76 per barrel on Monday.

However, though prices continue to soar, physical supply from the region has dropped steeply. Data from Kpler, as cited by Reuters, shows Middle East crude exports to Asia fell to 11.665 million barrels per day in March, down from nearly 19 million bpd in February and around 32% lower than March 2025 levels. The decline is linked to halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict.Refining sources said the rally is being driven by reduced volumes available in the Platts Market on Close process after three crude grades that pass through the strait were removed."It is unnatural and unfair pricing because of thin trading," one source said, arguing that the remaining grades, Oman and Murban, do not adequately represent the benchmark used for pricing Middle Eastern and some Russian crude.Another refining source said that trading of May-loading Middle East crude has effectively stalled, describing the Dubai and Oman benchmarks as broken.S&P Global Energy defended its pricing mechanism, stating, "Platts Dubai continues to reflect the value of Middle Eastern sour crude trading in the spot market," and added that trading activity in the Platts window has been strong this month, with multiple cargo deliveries.However, traders noted that TotalEnergies has emerged as the sole active buyer in the Platts window, purchasing 24 cargoes of Oman and Murban crude, equivalent to 12 million barrels, so far this month. With Middle Eastern supply tightening, Asian refiners are increasingly turning to other regions. Spot premiums for crude from the Americas and Africa have risen as buyers compete for limited cargoes.Traders said Brazilian crude premiums have surged to between $12 and $15 per barrel over ICE Brent, while April-loading West African crude has seen premiums rise by about $1 per barrel compared to a month ago, with most available cargoes already sold.