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3 min readFeb 16, 2026 09:02 PM IST
Sri Lanka's Kusal Mendis, left, shatters the stumps to get Australia's Adam Zampa run out during the T20 World Cup cricket match between Sri Lanka and Australia in Pallekele, Sri Lanka. (AP Photo)
While a lot of attention was on Group D as Group of Death, featuring Afghanistan, New Zealand and South Africa, it is mighty Australia are in real danger of exiting the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup before the Super Eights from Group B. Hit by injuries and batting struggles, Australia lost their second match in Group B clash against Zimbabwe, thoroughly outplayed by Sikandar Raza’s side for most part of the match in Colombo. That defeat gave Zimbabwe two wins in two, just like Sri Lanka.
Australia are facing a must-win situation in Pallekele against Dasun Shanka’s co-hosts. With Mitch Marsh back in the side, Australia posted 181, making it a fascinating run-chase in prospect for Sri Lanka.
What are the standings in Group B before SL vs AUS?
Sri Lanka are top of the standings with two wins and a superb Net Run Rate of +3.125. Zimbabwe’s wins against Oman and Australia also puts them on four points from two matches, with a solid NRR of +1.984. Australia, meanwhile, beat Ireland in the opener and then lost to Zimbabwe, to be on two points and a NRR of +1.100.
Will Australia be eliminated if they lose against Sri Lanka?
Not mathematically, and not instantly. Australia will remain alive, partly because they play Oman in the last match of this Group B on February 20. It is fair to assume Australia will beat Oman, and do so comfortably, knowing what the margin they need to win by would be. Ireland vs Zimbabwe on February 17 and Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe on February 19 will go a long way in deciding this group.
While Australia won’t be knocked out if they lose against Sri Lanka, it makes things very tricky for them as they can only reach a maximum of four points, which both Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe have already achieved. So Australia would need Zimbabwe to lose both their remaining matches, then pip the other sides on NRR.
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If Australia beat Sri Lanka, they would still be in a dangerous situation. Australia can reach a maximum of six points, but so can Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. It will again come down to NRR but that’s where Australia playing Oman last will become a bigger advantage for them.
What about Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe?
Sri Lanka will qualify for Super 8s if they beat Australia, If they don’t, they’d still stand a decent chance because of their NRR, all they’d need to do is beat Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe, on the other hand, still have to beat either Sri Lanka or Ireland – both tricky prospects – to qualify for Super 8s. A three-way tie on six points is on the cards if Australia beat Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe, and Zimbabwe beat Irealand – all very likely results. Then, of course, NRR comes into play once more.
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