The biggest threat from the US-Iran war: A Jet Fuel Shortage

London: The US-Iran war, now in its second month, has snowballed into a threat that could disrupt more than just the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocking crude oil shipments, aviation experts have warned of a critical shortage of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), which could threaten the civil aviation market as we know it. 

The Countdown

For Europe, one of the world’s leading civil aviation markets, the threat of the war is beginning to show up only now.  According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), flights in Europe could start to get cancelled from the end of May, as Europe depends on the Middle East for 41% of its jet fuel imports.

“Along with doing everything possible ⁠to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important ​that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans ​in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” International Air Transport Association’s director general Willie Walsh said. 

Unlike diesel or petrol, jet fuel has stringent quality requirements, having a specific supply chain that cannot be replaced by other petroleum products. If new shipments do not arrive on time, major European hubs like Frankfurt, London Heathrow, or Paris CDG could witness mass flight cancellations. 

The effects are already showing

For airlines, this supply chain disruption couldn’t come at a worse time, as summer remains the most profitable season for the industry in Europe. Even if alternative supplies do come in from the US or Africa, it will not make up for the demand, with many airlines already shutting some routes or curtailing operations.

German airliner Lufthansa is closing its regional subsidiary as a precaution, while various other airlines are looking to trim operations or are looking at a wait-and-watch approach. 

Industry insiders are calling this the “worst crisis we’ve had in aviation, ever,”  surpassing the COVID-19 pandemic, as the challenge for securing jet fuel supplies will intensify even after supplies are restored. For now, advance travel plans for millions are in jeopardy, with the tourism calendar for months getting ruined due to the crisis.