The Middle East in flames: How Operation Epic Fury ignited a regional conflagration

The conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States has escalated dramatically, transitioning into a multi-front regional war. On Wednesday, March 18, 2026, Israel carried out a major airstrike on Iran's South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas reserve.

This attack marks a significant escalation in the ongoing regional conflict, as it is the first time core fossil fuel production infrastructure has been directly targeted. The strike specifically hit gas storage tanks and processing units, forcing the closure of two refineries in Asaluyeh with a combined capacity of approximately 100 million cubic metres per day. Initial reports indicate the damage affects nearly 12% of Iran's total gas production.

US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Israel acted alone "out of anger" and that the U.S. "knew nothing" of the specific attack, though US media reports suggest that Washington was informed in advance but opted out of participation.The attack triggered a chain of retaliatory strikes across the Persian Gulf. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, causing "extensive damage".

Iran also attacked the Habshan Gas Complex and Bab Oil Field in UAE with missiles and drones. Although UAE authorities said that most were intercepted, they called it a "dangerous escalation". Falling debris caused minor incidents and operations were temporarily shut down for safety checks.

Ballistic missiles and drones targeted the Riyadh refinery and the Ras Tanura export hub in Saudi Arabia. Saudi defense forces intercepted several projectiles but debris caused a fire near the Riyadh refinery.

Operations were briefly halted, further straining global oil markets. Iran also issued threats against several other regional energy hubs, leading to evacuations at the Samref and Jubail facilities in Saudi Arabia and the Al Hosn gas asset in the UAE.The strike on such critical infrastructure has rattled global energy markets. Brent crude surged over 5%, rising toward $110–$112 per barrel. Despite the escalation, Trump has told reporters he expects the conflict to end in the "very near future".

Diplomatic fallout

The diplomatic fallout from Iran's 2026 attacks on Gulf Arab states has fundamentally shifted the Persian Gulf region’s security architecture, ending years of delicate rapprochement and mediation efforts. Following the launch of over 2,000 missiles and drones, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have pivoted from neutral bystanders to active participants in the regional confrontation.The most significant fallout is the destruction of the 2023 Chinese-brokered normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Riyadh has shifted from its 2025 stance of "restraint" to a full military alert. Saudi Arabia stated that "all trust" in Iran has been "completely shattered". Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has authorized potential retaliation and offered to place "all capabilities" at the region's disposal.Having borne the brunt of the attacks, the UAE recalled its ambassador from Tehran and shuttered its embassy, describing the strikes as "terrorist attacks".Historically Iran’s primary mediators, Oman and Qatar have seen their roles compromised.

Qatar issued its strongest-ever condemnation, describing the strikes as a "betrayal" and a "reckless" violation of sovereignty. Qatar has also expelled Iranian military attaches following the strike on its gas facility.

Assassinations of Iranian leaders

In another major development, Israel assassinated Iran's Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib in an overnight attack on March 18, 2026. Khatib was a central pillar of Iran’s power structure, holding one of the country's highest religious titles (Hujjat al-Islam) and possessing decades of intelligence experience. Known for his ideological loyalty to Khamenei, Khatib was instrumental in cracking down on internal government corruption and managing the regime's response to domestic protests.

Khatib directed several networks involved in cyber espionage and ransomware attacks. His removal is expected to hinder Iran's ability to conduct "cyber-enabled activities" against the U.S.

and its allies. Khatib was also responsible for advancing Iranian-backed terrorist activities against Israeli and American targets worldwide. As the head of civilian intelligence, Khatib oversaw the surveillance, arrest, and killing of protesters within Iran.

His death removes the primary architect of the regime's internal repression apparatus.This marked the third assassination of a high-ranking Iranian official in two days. Khatib's assassination followed those of Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Gholamreza Soleimani ,commander of the IRGC Basij force on March 17. Part of Israel's Operation Roaring Lion, the strikes are severe blows to the Iranian regime's internal and external security apparatus.

Ali Larijani was a high-level official often described as a top strategist or advisor, making his death a direct strike on Iran's core political leadership.

Gholamreza Soleimani’s Basij force is critical for suppressing internal dissent during periods of anti-government protests. These assassinations represent a massive escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, targeting the inner circle of Tehran's power structure.They are part of Israel's strategy aimed at directly attacking senior political leaders rather than just the military infrastructure or nuclear assets.

The objective is to weaken the regime’s control and empower potential internal opposition.

Objectives and strategies

The US and Israel appear focused on regime change or total dismantling of Iranian military power. Trump claimed that weeks of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes have already "decimated" Iran's air force, navy, and leadership, leaving "practically nothing left to target". The operation has involved tracking high-value targets deep inside Iran, showcasing high-level intelligence and operational capabilities by the IDF which is trying to disrupt Iran’s internal security structure during a period of ongoing anti-government protests.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF no longer requires additional political approval to target any senior Iranian official, signaling a policy of "no immunity" for the Iranian leadership.On the other hand, Tehran is utilizing a multi-front strategy of military escalation and economic disruption to make the ongoing war prohibitively expensive for the U.S. and Israel, aiming to force a diplomatic off-ramp.

Iran continues to block the strategic waterway, which has driven global oil prices to over $108 per barrel. By targeting energy infrastructure in the Arab Gulf states and shipping lanes, Iran seeks to trigger global economic pain, signaling that continued conflict will bring high costs.

Widening and escalation of conflict

The war between the United States and Israel against Iran has has escalated significantly with no early end insight. Iran launched a massive retaliatory missile and drone attack against Israel following the assassinations of these top officials.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) initiated a series of strikes described as "revenge for the blood of the martyrs". Iran fired around 1,000 missiles and drones targeting Israeli military intelligence headquarters, government buildings, and residential areas in Tel Aviv.

For the first time, Iran used missiles with cluster warheads (specifically Khoramshahr-4 and Qadr models) to maximize impact over wide areas.

Retaliatory strikes were not limited to Israel; Iran also targeted U.S. and allied interests across the Gulf, including the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and locations in Kuwait and the UAE. Iran launched missile strikes on the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar, causing "extensive damage". This followed an earlier Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest. Iran and its allied militias have also targeted energy sites in Saudi Arabia (Riyadh refineries) and the United Arab Emirates (Habshan gas facility).Israel has also escalated its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, following rocket fire into Israel, with threats of expanding military action and establishing a ground presence. The IDF has begun limited ground operations in southern Lebanon, aiming to remove threats near the border.Israel aims to dismantle Hezbollah capabilities and establish a buffer zone, with officials threatening a prolonged campaign to secure northern Israel, as military efforts expand.

Israel seeks a lasting security setup that moves Hezbollah forces away from the border, with officials stating this conflict will not end in a traditional ceasefire. The Iranian retaliatory strikes killed at least two people in the Tel Aviv area, bringing the total death toll from Iranian missile attacks on Israel to 14 by mid-March.The casualty figures in Iran are rising steadily. Reports indicate at least 5,000 Iranian security forces have been killed.

Civilian tolls are also rising, including 153 killed in a strike on an Iranian girls' school earlier this month.India has sent its first batch of medical assistance to the Iranian Red Crescent Society.

There are reports of over 1,300 deaths and heavy casualties in Lebanon.The US has confirmed 13 American service member deaths to date. Despite the high costs, neither side is showing immediate signs of de-escalation.

The situation is characterized by intense, high-level war, making it one of the most volatile crises in the region's recent history.

The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz has become the site of a major international crisis. Iran has targeted maritime traffic in the Strait , causing a significant slowdown in tanker traffic, which has been described as a major supply disruption. Iran has effectively restricted access to this Strait, declaring it closed to the U.S.,

Israel, and their allies. Shipping traffic has plummeted by approximately 90-95% compared to pre-war levels.

Roughly 20% of the world's oil transits through this passage. The closure has caused global oil prices to rise by approximately 40% since the start of hostilities, with reports of their exceeding $110 per barrel. Beyond oil, the strait is a vital artery for 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) and one-third of the world's fertiliser trade.

Roughly 400 vessels remain anchored in the Gulf of Oman or nearby waters, unable to secure insurance or safe passage.President Donald Trump called for an international naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, most major U.S. allies formally declined or expressed strong reluctance to join a proposed naval coalition. They include the UK, Germany, Japan, Australia, Spain, Italy and Greece. While the U.S.

views the blockade as a violation of international maritime law, some allies have questioned the legality of the initial military strikes against Iran, complicating the formation of a coalition.

Following the refusals, President Trump adopted a defiant tone, stating that the US does not "need any help" to reopen the strait. He criticized NATO allies on social media, calling the alliance a "one-way street" where the U.S.

protects them but receives nothing in return. Despite the blockade, some countries are successfully negotiating "permission-based transit". While threatening to "set ablaze" unauthorized vessels, Iran has allowed some vessels to pass, selectively controlling traffic in the vital oil route. Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has indicated that the closure is not total, but specifically targeted at the US and its allies, with potential exceptions for other nations.

Three Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG and crude oil (the Shivalik, Nanda Devi and Jag Laadki) have recently arrived safely in India after crossing the strait. Vessels from China and Pakistan have also been allowed through, as Iran maintains the route is open to "friendly" or neutral nations. Only about 21 tankers have transited since the conflict began.

Conclusion

Ending the conflict with Iran is a highly difficult challenge due to a combination of entrenched asymmetric military strategies, the lack of a clear post-war political plan, and the existential nature of the conflict for the Iranian leadership.

The war has evolved into a "war of attrition" that is difficult for US-led forces to resolve quickly through traditional military means. Iran has adopted a strategy designed to outlast the United States rather than defeat it conventionally.

Using drones, missiles, and naval threats, Iran can continue disrupting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz , creating sustained global economic pressure. Iran perceives this as a battle for survival, making it less likely to accept a quick, humiliating exit or meet all of Washington's demands. On the other hand, the US and Israel have initiated the conflict to achieve significant, long-term strategic goals, making it hard for them to accept a compromise that leaves Iran's capabilities intact. Iran has set high conditions for ending the war, including guarantees against future attacks, recognition of its right to uranium enrichment, and reparations. These maximalist positions leave very little room for a compromise that would satisfy American and Israeli security demands. herefore, a slow, protracted conflict is the most likely scenario.