The Political Math Doesn't Add Up: Why Congress And Trinamool Are Better Apart

Last Updated:June 12, 2026, 07:40 IST

For Mamata Banerjee, who built her entire identity by breaking away from Congress in 1998, crawling back to 10 Janpath represents a humiliation from which she can never rise.

The corridors of Delhi are buzzing after Mamata Banerjee’s back-to-back huddles with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. Following the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) crushing defeat in the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections, and the party’s subsequent disintegration, rumours of a political merger are gaining momentum.

While sources in both parties have dismissed speculation about a merger, political observers say that such a move would serve neither side. For Mamata Banerjee, a return to the Congress fold would amount not to a political rehabilitation, but to a surrender of the very identity on which her career was built. Equally, for the Congress, absorbing Trinamool without any immediate electoral or organisational gain could prove more burdensome than beneficial, potentially creating new fault lines in the party.

For a leader like Mamata Banerjee, who built her entire identity by breaking away from the Congress in 1998, crawling back to 10 Janpath represents a humiliation from which she can never rise. Banerjee’s brand was forged on uncompromising, aggressive anti-Congressism, accusing the grand old party of being a soft ally to the Left. To dissolve the identity of the ‘real TMC’ into the very structure she rejected would completely finish her regional relevance.

Electorally, however, the arithmetic is an absolute disaster. The most critical, shared constituency for both parties in Bengal is the minority vote bank. For over a decade, Mamata held an iron grip on this 27 to 30 per cent demographic. However, the 2026 debacle exposed massive structural rot, as the rebellion by 60 MLAs and 20 LS MPs moving out, has triggered a vertical split.

The Zero-Sum Game

If a merger happens, what does Congress gain? At the national level, the Congress secures a visible, aggressive face and potentially absorbs the remaining, un-defected grassroots structure of the TMC. But in doing so, Congress will have to completely cede its independent revival space in West Bengal. Why would the state Congress, once led by fierce critics like Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, allow Banerjee to dictate terms after she systematically eroded their organizational foundation for 15 years?

“Talk of a Trinamool Congress–Congress merger surfaced after Sonia Gandhi-Mamata Banerjee meeting. However, the political realities make such a scenario extremely difficult. Congress leaders know from past experience that both Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee pursue an independent political line, and accommodating that within the Congress structure would be a challenge and detrimental too. An electoral understanding or seat-sharing arrangement is conceivable, but a formal merger is far less likely," said senior political analyst and author Sayanthan Ghosh.

As far Trinamool’s gains are concerned, a merger provides temporary protection from central investigative agencies, but it signals complete ideological bankruptcy to the electorate.

“At the moment, Mamata Banerjee’s priority appears to be retaining her MPs and preventing further erosion of the party. There is concern within sections of the opposition that if the exodus reaches a point where Trinamool’s parliamentary strength is severely depleted, survival options may be explored. However, Congress has little incentive to absorb a regional party like Trinamool that competes for the same minority vote base and carries significant political baggage after more than a decade of governance in West Bengal. A merger may be discussed in theory, but politically it remains a remote possibility," added professor Ghosh.

Meanwhile, if any such situation arrives, Trinamool would stand to lose its distinct regional identity, its symbol, and its absolute command over West Bengal’s anti-BJP space.

About the Author

Madhuparna Das

Madhuparna Das, Associate Editor (policy) at CNN News 18, has been in journalism for nearly 14 years. She has extensively been covering politics, policy, crime and internal security issues. She has co...Read More

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