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The closing of Strait of Hormuz already caused a global energy and crude oil disruption. That resulted in bigger holes in pockets, longer queues at fuel stations, and careful combustion in kitchens. One or two ships pass, but the strait is still not operational. At least, not in the way it should be.
A stitch in time saves nine. And looking at the rising tensions over the US and Iran war, one must say, a ceasefire on time can save billions.
In general circumstances, one-fifth of the global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, as per the data, the volume is around 10 million barrels per day. In odd circumstances that are persisting now, a global recession is not far away if the tussle continues for next 6 months and the strait remains unfunctional. 3% of the global GDP is at stake. Further, if this war does not stop anytime soon, then 20% of global populace will be pushed into an abyss of extreme poverty. Within a month, this war has killed more than 1500 civilians and displaced more than 3 million people. That’s a lot of people, and a lot more suffering.
Experts are debating over how long Iran can keep fighting, but how long the world can tolerate a crisis has really awkward stats to offer. Asia will be the softest target, as most shipments at strait have their receivers in countries like India and China.
As expected, the status of peace talks is surely pathetic.
“We have been at it for 21 hours, and we had several discussions with Iranians; we have not reached an agreement, and that is bad news for Iran more than it is bad news for the USA.” spoke US Vice President J D Vance during an address following peace talks with Iran in Islamabad on April 12, 2026
It says it all. No peace soon.
Why this war?
On February 28, the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran. The massive strikes targeted Iranian military assets, factories that produce ballistic missiles, alleged nuclear research centres, and Islamic Republic’s top leadership. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in this attack, including some other members of Iran’s top leadership. Iran appointed Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as its next Supreme Leader and started retaliation, destroying US military facilities in the entire Gulf region. It also targeted Israel and damaged its energy infrastructure and caused massive civilian displacement in the Gulf region.
To reduce its own stake, Iran wanted to convert this war into a regional war so that the stake gets bigger for others and the intensity gets diverted. And as per its strategy, Iran was successful in doing that so far. To worsen the situation, Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes. This single move alone caused a global energy shock, and the International Energy Agency had to release four million barrels from its reserve.
To some people, Trump instigated this war only to distract people from the Epstein Files. To others it’s just about controlling the energy and crude oil, as Trump did in the case of Venezuela. But the reality is far more distant. As per the White House narratives, this war was a necessary evil to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and further stopping it from propelling terrorism across the globe.
Now one must ask, why is Israel there in the picture?
Israel Katz, Israel’s Defence minister said, “the strikes were intended to remove threats to the state of Israel.”
To understand this very point, one must remember the war between Israel and Gaza. In that war, there was a continuous mention of Hamas. Iran was the godfather to this Palestinian militant group Hamas. It helped Hamas with funding and training and also helped it in its attack on Israel on 7th October, 2023.
According to the US government stats, Iran is the biggest supporter of terrorism and it spends more than one billion dollars per year on terrorist funding. And if Iran gets nuclear weapons, there will be a massive threat worldwide. US President Donald Trump also urged Iranians to rise up against the Islamic republic.
When Iran kicked off its ambitious nuclear project, Russia and China were the helping hands, however, now as this uranium enrichment program is about to be broken by the spine, Russia is the one who wants to keep all of it or most of it, Russia is the one trying to take the uranium that Iran accumulated throughout the years. If it happens, there are two major possibilities: one, if Russia wants, Iran can resume its clandestine nuclear project anytime; two, USA snatches it away to put an end to this possibility. Iran getting nuclear power can become a safety net for its people, it can save it from the suffering that people in Gaza faced. But if used in evil manner, it might wipe off its neighbours from the world map.
Peace talks are going on, we can expect the strait to be functional anytime soon. It’s high time Iran understands the extreme consequences. All we have is hope.
English (US) ·