Today's Chanakya Exit Poll Tamil Nadu 2026: DMK+ Leads Race, Vijay's TVK To Make Big Debut

Last Updated:April 30, 2026, 18:03 IST

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results 2026 By Today's Chanakya: TVK, led by Vijay, is expected to make a strong debut with 63 ± 11 seats, emerging as a significant third force.

Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Results 2026 By Today’s Chanakya: Public opinion polling company Today’s Chanakya released its analysis for assembly elections in Tamil Nadu where voting took place on April 23. In terms of seats, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance (DMK+) is projected to secure 125 ± 11 seats in the 234-member Assembly, putting it comfortably above the majority mark of 118 and on course for a second consecutive term.

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Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay, is expected to make a strong debut with 63 ± 11 seats, emerging as a significant third force. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance (AIADMK+) is forecast to win 45 ± 11 seats, while Others are likely to manage 1 ± 1 seat.

Read more: ‘Missing’ In Exit Polls, Why Silent Voters May Be The Biggest Blind Spot In Close Races

On vote share, DMK+ is projected to lead with 39% ± 3%, reflecting a solid support base across the state. TVK is estimated to secure 30% ± 3% of the vote- an impressive showing for a debutant party- while the AIADMK-led alliance is placed at 27% ± 3%. Other parties are expected to account for 4% ± 3% of the vote share.

Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: What Other Pollsters Have Said

Tamil Nadu exit polls suggest the ruling DMK-led alliance may be on course for a second consecutive term, even as the opposition keeps the contest from being a foregone conclusion. The clearest signal comes from People’s Pulse, which projects the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 125–145 seats- comfortably above the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member Assembly. The AIADMK-led NDA is estimated at 65–80 seats, while actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is projected to win 18–24 seats, cementing its emergence as a significant third force.

Matrize points in the same direction, though with tighter margins: 122–132 seats for the DMK alliance, 87–110 for the AIADMK combine and 10–12 for TVK.

P-MARQ estimates the DMK at 125–145, the AIADMK at 65–85 and TVK at 16–26, with others accounting for 1–6 seats. People’s Insight broadly echoes these figures, pegging the DMK at 120–140, the AIADMK at 60–70 and TVK at 30–40.

The outlier is Praja Poll, which hands the DMK its most generous projection- 148–168 seats- and the AIADMK 61–81. Where it diverges most sharply from the rest, however, is on TVK: Praja Poll projects one to nine seats for Vijay’s party, a striking departure from every other agency.

The official results will be declared on May 4. Exit polls are based on voter surveys conducted after voting and are not always accurate predictors of final results.

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