'Trump Could Lose Mid-Term Elections': Eurasia Group's Chief Warns Of Bigger Consequences Of Iran War

Last Updated:April 07, 2026, 20:16 IST

Analyst Ian Bremmer says Trump expects to lose US midterms, warns he may escalate Iran war, threaten civilian targets and Strait of Hormuz, risking catastrophic consequences

US President Donald Trump is going to lose the midterms and he knows that, said President of Eurasia Group and author Ian Bremmer while speaking to CNN-News18, adding that now the question is whether he understands that the midterm is lost and the house is lost or not.

“If he can’t take the economy around, he will lose. The big question is if he is going to become more risk-accepting to push for taking the oil, to push for using the 12,000 troops in the Gulf around April 16. That is the big question, and only President Trump has the answer," Bremmer said.

Speaking on the war in Iran, Eurasia Group President said, “If Trump escalates the war and hits civilian infrastructure and Iran retaliates, we could easily see an environment like a pandemic." We are playing with serious consequences."

Upon being asked if either party exists after the war, what would happen to the Strait of Hormuz, he said, “Other countries need to find a way to open the Strait of Hormuz." Trump has provided some support to Iran to allow transit to be maintained in the Strait."

Countries need to negotiate. For example, Pakistan and France are negotiating to keep the strait open. The US also needs to negotiate to keep the Hormuz open", he added.

Criticising Trump for threatening a genocide, he said, “Trump has been talking bigger than his actions." Unfortunate for the US president to be threatening a genocide. This is out of frustration and overconfidence. He is used to getting what he wants."

Trump’s Most Aggressive Warning To Iran

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump issued his most harrowing warning to date, just hours before the 8pm (ET) deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In a Truth Social post that has stunned global capitals, the President declared: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will."

The rhetoric suggests that the conflict is no longer a matter of maritime skirmishes or tactical leverage. With global oil prices surging and Iranian authorities calling for “human chains" around power plants, the world is now grappling with what “dying tonight" actually entails for a nation of 85 million people.

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