TVK's Vijay Eyes The Magic 118 — But What Happens If No One Crosses Majority Mark?

Setting The Stage: Tamil Nadu's 234-seat Assembly delivered its verdict on May 4, 2026, after a historic single-phase poll on April 23 that saw 85.1% voter turnout — the highest in the state's history. The counting, held across 62 centres, shaped up as a three-cornered battle between the ruling DMK, the AIADMK, and first-time contestant Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay.

The Earthquake Begins: By mid-morning, it was clear this was no ordinary election. TVK surged ahead in 107 constituencies, emerging ahead of both Dravidian heavyweights DMK and AIADMK. Most pre-election polls had predicted a DMK return to power — only Axis My India had projected a TVK government. The numbers on the board told a very different story.

Stalin's Fortress Falls: The day's most stunning moment came from Kolathur — Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's safe seat of 15 years, which he had won three consecutive times since 2011. TVK's V.S. Babu led Stalin by over 7,700 votes after seven rounds of counting, in what became the defining image of Tamil Nadu's 2026 verdict: the sitting Chief Minister defeated in his own backyard.

EPS Holds Fort, TVK Nomination Blocked: While Stalin stumbled, AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami dominated his home turf. EPS led by over 50,000 votes after 12 rounds of counting in the Edappadi constituency, the widest margin among all chief ministerial candidates' seats. In a twist, TVK's official candidate's nomination had been rejected in Edappadi; the party extended support to K. Prem Kumar, who contested as an Independent.

Vijay Wins On Two Fronts: In a rare political gamble, TVK chief Vijay contested from two constituencies simultaneously — and won both. In Perambur, he defeated DMK's R.D. Shankar by approximately 19,000 votes, while in Tiruchirappalli East, he overcame DMK's Inigo Irudayaraj by over 6,000 votes. The dual-constituency bet paid off decisively, announcing Vijay not just as a debutant winner but as the undisputed face of Tamil Nadu's political earthquake.

The Race To 118: With a simple majority requiring 118 seats in the 234-member Assembly, TVK's tally of leads hovered around 106 as of 3 PM — tantalisingly close but not yet over the line. In some of the closest contests, TVK candidates were trailing by razor-thin margins of under 100–102 votes in seats like Kumbakonam, Sholavandan, and Vikravandi, keeping the final picture in suspense well into the afternoon.

If No One Reaches 118: With the outcome still uncertain mid-afternoon, constitutional provisions came into sharp focus. If no single party or alliance secures 118 seats, the Governor must invite the single largest party to form the government — which must then prove its majority on the floor of the House within 15 days, or within a period the Governor determines. Failure to do so could trigger President's Rule under Article 356, and ultimately, fresh elections.

A New Chapter For Tamil Nadu: Since 1967, power in Tamil Nadu has largely alternated between the DMK and AIADMK. A strong TVK breakthrough would break that binary and establish Vijay as a disruptive new force in the state's political order, echoing watershed moments like 1967's first non-Congress government and MGR's historic 1977 debut. As TVK workers celebrated on the streets of Chennai, one thing was certain — Tamil Nadu's politics would never look the same again.