Vijay May Hold 'Master' Key To Next Tamil Nadu Govt: Which Bloc Will He Join? 5 Scenarios Explained

Last Updated:May 03, 2026, 14:02 IST

Vijay has previously described the DMK as TVK’s primary political rival and the BJP as its ideological adversary.

Tamil Nadu Election 2026: With just hours to go before counting begins in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, candidates are on edge, waiting to see if voters have handed them a mandate. While the NDA and INDIA blocs are familiar rivals, this time the spotlight is firmly on actor-turned-politician Vijay and how his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) performs. Notably, this is the first time in decades that Tamil Nadu is witnessing a triangular contest, adding a new layer of unpredictability to the race.

Vijay has previously described the DMK as TVK’s primary political rival and the BJP as its ideological adversary. However, if poll projections hold on counting day, his party could find itself in a pivotal position — emerging either as a decisive force or a crucial kingmaker in the next government.

Here are some scenarios that could play out after the poll results if Vijay manages to do the impossible:

Scenario 1

TVK may emerge as the single largest party, winning 98-120 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly as per the exit poll projection by Axis My India. If this becomes reality, Vijay may reach out to Congress, which contested 28 seats and some other smaller parties to form the government.

Read More | 5 Times Axis My India Shocked Everyone With Bold Exit Polls Predictions And Got It Right

Congress leader Praveen Chakravarty had met Vijay before the election. However, an agreement couldn’t be reached.

The TVK chief had not attacked Congress much during his rallies. Vijay’s father SA Chandrasekhar had earlier appealed to the Congress to join hands.

Scenario 2

If the TVK finds itself in a position to form the government, Vijay could look to the AIADMK, which is leading the NDA in Tamil Nadu, for support. However, the path is far from straightforward. Vijay and senior TVK leaders have repeatedly said they will not align with “communal forces," a stance widely seen as ruling out any partnership involving the BJP.

At the same time, Vijay has signalled openness towards the AIADMK’s Dravidian legacy. During the campaign, he paid tribute to MGR in Tiruchirappalli, underlining ideological overlaps.

While this leaves the door ajar for a possible understanding with the AIADMK, Vijay has maintained that he will not “compromise on ideology," effectively keeping a distance from the BJP.

Vijay could also explore the option of seeking outside support from parties like the AIADMK or even the BJP, without formally bringing them into the government. Such an arrangement would allow TVK to retain control while securing the numbers needed to govern.

A similar model was seen in Delhi in 2013, when the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), despite being the single largest party, formed the government with outside support from its rival, the Congress. Led by Arvind Kejriwal, that experiment, however, proved short-lived, highlighting the inherent instability of such arrangements.

Scenario 3

If the DMK falls short of a majority and TVK emerges with a significant tally, the post-poll equations could take an interesting turn. One possibility could be TVK extending support to an opposition bloc, even though Vijay has so far ruled out any alliance with the Congress.

In such a scenario, he could consider backing the DMK government or negotiating a role within it, potentially even as Deputy Chief Minister. Indian politics has seen similar arrangements before — most notably in Karnataka, where H.D. Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal (Secular) became Chief Minister despite winning fewer seats, as the Congress backed him to keep the BJP out of power.

However, Tamil Nadu presents a different dynamic. Unlike Karnataka, where the Congress played a central role, the DMK is the dominant force here. Any such arrangement would likely see the DMK firmly in control, making it a more complex and less predictable equation for Vijay and the TVK.

Scenario 4

If the AIADMK falls short of a majority, Vijay may be reluctant to align with the NDA, given his stated ideological positions. He is also navigating other pressures, including the pending release of his film Jan Nagayan and a CBI probe related to the Karur stampede that claimed 41 lives.

That said, politics often produces unlikely alliances. In a tight post-poll scenario, Vijay could still consider backing the AIADMK to keep M.K. Stalin out of power, even if it means reworking earlier positions.

Scenario 3

If Vijay manages to secure a full majority, it would be a historic outcome, eliminating any dependence on post-poll alliances or coalition arithmetic.

Exuding confidence, K.A. Sengottaiyan, Chief Coordinator of the TVK Executive Committee, has claimed that the party is on course to win at least 180 seats. Dismissing the need for any tie-up with the AIADMK, he said, “There is no question of a hung Assembly. We are targeting 180 to 200 seats."

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