Wayanad landslides a highly probable ‘grey rhino’ event ignored despite visible warning signs, says study

A study conducted on the Mundakkai-Chooralmala landslides by a People’s Scientific Study Committee established by Transition Studies and the Western Ghats Samrakshana Samiti finds that the landslide was a ‘grey rhino event’, a highly probable, high-impact event which was ignored despite visible warning signs. This report, independently compiled by a diverse team of experts after a 10-month study, investigates the disaster’s causes and offers actionable recommendations to prevent future tragedies.

The ‘Sliding Earth, Scattered Lives’ report will be released to the public on September 13 at an event in Kalpetta. The report notes that the landslide happened in an area that has been categorised by numerous government documents and papers as a landslide-prone area, and has been hit by several landslides, particularly in the recent past. As per the findings, the landslide is a consequence of excessive human interference with nature at the global and local levels.

One of the key findings of the report is that the Western Ghats face increasing risks from landslides due to unchecked development and environmental degradation. The report identifies specific geological, climatic, and human-induced factors contributing to the disaster.

The committee recommends that development activities in the Western Ghats must adhere to rigorous environmental regulations. Policymakers and stakeholders should prioritise eco-friendly development to mitigate landslide risks. Local communities must be involved in planning and monitoring development projects to ensure sustainability. The report calls for updated policies to address the region’s environmental challenges and prevent future disasters. Laws should be enacted to remove people and settlements from landslide pathways.

Landslide Emergency Response Plans

The Meppadi panchayat has to prepare site-specific Landslide Emergency Response Plans that includes criteria for sounding a landslide alert, a system for issuing a landslide warning that reaches all those at risk, a plan and an organisation for rescue, evacuation, relief and rehabilitation of people and domestic animals as well as other immediate measures. The panchayat should be given the authority to determine the extent of development — land use change, extent of plantations and development that should be permitted.

The report says that the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) should attempt to make hyper-local meteorological forecasts for 1 km x 1 km areas for landslide prone areas and place them in public domain. There should be an optimum coverage of Kerala with Doppler radars. India-specific weather models that simulate Indian conditions more accurately should be developed. Cloudburst events need to be investigated thoroughly and necessary practical steps need to be recommended to avoid disasters, and these should be communicated to communities at risk.

Long-term measures

Among long-term measures, the report says that the State Government must pledge to fully decarbonise Kerala by 2045-50. The State government should request the Union government to lobby in COP meetings for environmental justice to become a central guiding principle for tackling the climate crisis.

The report calls on the State government to implement the recommendations made by the Expert Committee that it had constituted to study the landslides, as well as the recommendations of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (WGEEP), the Sahyadri Ecologically Sensitive Area Report (SESA) and the Kodachadri Sensitive Area Report (KESA). The government should offer a public explanation if some provisions are not implemented.

The people’s committee which prepared the study comprises C.P. Rajendran, Geologist, National Institute for Advanced Studies, Bangalore; Sagar Dhara, Risk Analyst, former UNEP; S. Abhilash, Climatologist, CUSAT; T.V. Sajeev, KFRI; C.K. Vishnudas, Biodiversity Expert, HUME Centre, Kalpetta; Cheruvayal Raman, Traditional Rice Variety Conservator; Smitha P. Kumar, Botanist and other experts from across the country.