West Bengal Elections 2026 Opinion: Can BJP Cross 100 Seats In Assembly Polls | Explained

Last Updated:April 09, 2026, 09:00 IST

West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 Opinion: Elections are scheduled in two phases - April 23 and April 29 - with counting on May 4.

West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 Opinion: As the West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 approaches, one key question stands out: can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cross the 100-seat mark? Current surveys suggest a close contest, but the numbers point to a tough climb.

Polls show tight fight

A C-Voter survey shows a narrow gap, with the All India Trinamool Congress at 44% and the BJP at 40% in vote share.

Another poll by VoteVibe, released on CNN-News18, projects the BJP winning between 98 and 108 seats in the 294-member Assembly. This places the party close to the 100 mark, but not clearly beyond it.

TMC still ahead

The same survey suggests the TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, is on course for a fourth term, with 184 to 194 seats. Mamata Banerjee remains a key factor, with 48.5% of respondents naming her as their preferred Chief Minister. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari trails at 33.4%.

Vote share estimates also favour the TMC, with 41.9% support compared to 34.9% for the BJP. Around 36.5% of voters said they are willing to vote again for sitting TMC MLAs.

Past results

In 2021, the TMC won 213 seats, while the BJP secured 77. In 2016, the BJP had just 3 seats compared to the TMC’s 211. The current projections show growth for the BJP, but crossing 100 remains uncertain.

For 2026 polls, estimates by Poliq present a different picture. These projections place the BJP between 52 and 80 seats, well below the 100 mark. The TMC is projected to win 205 to 225 seats, with a vote share between 44% and 48%.

BJP claims Two-Third Majority

Amit Shah has said the BJP will secure a two-thirds majority. The TMC has rejected this, pointing to past election predictions that did not materialise.

The party recalled that in 2021, Shah had predicted over 200 seats, but the BJP won 77. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, he forecast 30 seats, while the party secured 12.

What TMC said?

TMC leaders have used these past claims to question the BJP’s current projections. Derek O’Brien cited earlier election forecasts, while state minister Bratya Basu said the BJP may not even cross 50 seats. TMC MP Saket Gokhale also criticised Shah over remarks on infiltration, questioning his record.

While one poll places the BJP near the 100-seat mark, others suggest a lower tally. The data shows growth for the party, but crossing 100 seats remains uncertain. The final outcome will depend on whether the BJP can convert its vote share into seats in a closely fought election.

The West Bengal Assembly elections are scheduled in two phases – April 23 and April 29 – with counting on May 4.

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