Who Gets It Right? A Look At India's Most Accurate Exit Pollsters

Last Updated:April 29, 2026, 11:56 IST

Exit polls are predictions based on what voters said while exiting the booth after exercising their franchise.

Exit Polls 2026: The 2026 Assembly elections in four states and a Union Territory will come to an end after the second phase of polling in West Bengal on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. After the conclusion of polling, all eyes will be on the exit poll results for the four states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam – and Union Territory – Puducherry. The exit poll predictions for the Assembly elections 2026 will be out by 6.30 pm.

Exit polls are predictions based on what voters said while exiting the booth after exercising their franchise. Over the years, several agencies like Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, IPSOS, CVoter, CSDS, have built reputations for predicting election outcomes.

Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, and CVoter are historically considered among the most accurate exit polls in India, often correctly predicting the winning alliance. Axis My India is known for its large sample sizes, while Today’s Chanakya has a strong record in predicting national vote shares.

However, exit poll predictions are never to be blindly relied on as there is always room for mistakes. Instances where exit polls went awry in the recent past are not scarce either.

In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, exit polls pegged NDA at 240-278 seats, only for the actual wins to be 187. The 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly saw predictions of a hung house (BJP: 161-210 seats) shattered by BJP’s landslide 312/403. More recently, 2024 Haryana exit polls forecast a Congress majority (48 seats in 90-seat house), but BJP clinched 48.

Tonight’s exit polls for Bengal’s 294 seats, Assam’s 126, Kerala’s 140, and Tamil Nadu’s 234 are set to put this mixed bag to the test once more.

Looking back at past assembly elections, Axis My India has often come closest to final outcomes. C-Voter remains a strong contender, particularly for its consistency over time, though with slightly wider margins of error.

What Time Will Exit Polls Be Released?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) had issued an advisory to media platforms and broadcasters, banning exit polls for elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry, and by-elections to eight Assembly constituencies unless voting concludes in all phases.

Once the clock hits 6:30 pm on April 29, several media organisations will roll out their surveys and seat projections for the Assembly elections 2026. The data for Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry, 824 assembly constituencies, will be released simultaneously.

Where To Track Exit Polls?

Stay on top of every development about the Exit Poll Results 2026 with real-time updates across CNN-News18. Tune in to CNN-News18 for live coverage, expert insights, and in-depth analysis, or follow the latest updates, key highlights, and breaking news on our social media channels and News18.com.

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