Why the Bills' $43.5 million free agent gamble could turn into their biggest offseason regret

The Buffalo Bills knew exactly what they were signing up for when they handed Bradley Chubb a three-year, $43.5 million contract in free agency. The veteran edge rusher brings proven production, but his career has also been defined by injuries that have repeatedly interrupted his momentum.

As Buffalo looks to strengthen a defense that struggled with consistency last season, the move has sparked debate over whether Chubb can stay healthy long enough to justify the investment or whether the contract could become a costly setback.

Why are analysts calling Bradley Chubb Buffalo's biggest defensive risk?

The concern isn't about Bradley Chubb's ability when he's on the field. It's about how often he has been available throughout his NFL career.Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport believes Buffalo's defense could face serious problems if Chubb's injury history resurfaces.

The Bills already dealt with several defensive setbacks last season, particularly in the front seven, and another prolonged absence from one of their biggest offseason additions would leave the unit under pressure.“The Bills had injury issues a year ago defensively, especially in the front-seven,” Davenport wrote. “If those continue, trouble could be brewing, especially if Chubb (who missed the entire 2024 season with an ACL tear) joins them.

Add to that potential issues in the slot after the departure of Taron Johnson, and the nightmare scenario is a defense that is largely unchanged in 2026 backsliding against the pass while once again struggling against the run.

”Those concerns are rooted in Chubb's medical history. He suffered his first significant ACL injury with the Denver Broncos in 2019, limiting him to just four games. Two years later, ankle surgery restricted him to seven appearances.

Then came another devastating ACL tear in late 2023, forcing him to miss the entire 2024 season.For Buffalo, the gamble is clear. If Chubb stays healthy, he has the talent to change games. If not, the Bills may find themselves searching for answers on a defense expected to compete at a championship level.

Can Bradley Chubb still deliver after years of injuries?

There is another side to the conversation, and it explains why Buffalo moved quickly once Chubb became available.The Broncos selected him fifth overall in the 2018 NFL Draft after a standout career at North Carolina State, and he immediately justified the pick with 12 sacks as a rookie. Although injuries prevented him from becoming Denver's long-term defensive centerpiece, his production has remained impressive whenever he has played a full season.After being traded to the Miami Dolphins in 2022, Chubb recorded 11 sacks in 2023 before returning with 8.5 sacks in 2025 following his ACL recovery.Sources say: The Dolphins and two-time Pro Bowl pass-rusher Bradley Chubb are parting ways, making the 29-year-old a free agent,” NFL insider Jordan Schultz wrote on his official X account on February 16. “In his two full seasons with the Dolphins (2023 & 2025), Chubb has 20 sacks, 8 FF, and 117 tackles. He should have a nice market … Chubb had 8.5 sacks this past season and was a top trade candidate before the deadline, with three teams actively trying to trade for him before Miami opted to keep him.

Now he’s a free agent and should have heavy interest.”Buffalo wasted little time acting on that interest.“Dolphins edge Bradley Chubb and the Bills agreed on a 3-year, $43.5M deal with $29M guaranteed,” NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport wrote on his official X account on March 9.Miami's decision also reflected financial realities.“Bradley Chubb had a $31.2M cap number for 2026. Miami will save $7.3M in cap space while taking on $23.8M in dead money by moving on from Chubb, who had 8.5 sacks last year,” The 33rd Team’s Ari Meirov wrote on his official X account.For the Bills, the calculation is straightforward. They are betting that Chubb's recent production is a better indicator of his future than his injury history. If that bet pays off, Buffalo could have landed one of the league's more impactful pass rushers at the right time. If it doesn't, the contract will likely remain one of the team's biggest questions throughout the 2026 season.