Is Trump’s Immigration Plan Working? More People Are Leaving US Than Coming In, Says Report

Last Updated:January 14, 2026, 17:07 IST

A sustained net migration loss could lead to “unexpectedly weak economic activity” in sectors that depend heavily on immigrant communities, the report warned.

US President Donald Trump

The US recorded negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century, driven largely by a sharp fall in new arrivals following the Donald Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, according to a report released by the Brookings Institution.

The report estimates net migration flows of between minus 295,000 and minus 10,000 for the year. While immigration enforcement and removals increased, the report said the negative figure was mainly the result of a steep decline in entries into the country rather than a surge in deportations.

“We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year," the study said, adding that “continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely" amid ongoing policy uncertainty.

The report attributed the shift to a combination of reduced entries, stepped-up enforcement, removals and voluntary departures. It said the Donald Trump administration’s suspension of several humanitarian pathways- including most refugee programmes, with exceptions such as those involving white South Africans- alongside a fall in temporary visas, played a significant role.

Brookings researchers estimated there were between 310,000 and 315,000 removals in 2025, a figure notably lower than claims made by the administration. The Department of Homeland Security said that more than 600,000 people have been removed so far during the crackdown.

“At 310,000 to 315,000, the 2025 removals are not much higher than the 2024 removals of around 285,000," the report said.

Unlike in 2024, most removals in 2025 were initiated by US Customs and Border Protection from within the country’s interior, rather than by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the authors noted, despite ICE operations featuring prominently in public discourse and media coverage.

Looking ahead, the report said removals are expected to rise in 2026, aided by additional funding under Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation is expected to expand enforcement capacity through increased staffing and infrastructure.

The report also warned of broader economic consequences. A sustained net migration loss could lead to “unexpectedly weak economic activity" in sectors that depend heavily on immigrant communities. Brookings estimates consumer spending could fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion over 2025 and 2026, contributing to slower growth in employment, GDP and overall demand.

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