‘Oil Will Be $300 A Barrel’: Trump’s 2011 Hormuz Shut Down Prediction Resurfaces Amid Iran War

Last Updated:March 16, 2026, 13:44 IST

Trump’s decade-old prediction has therefore gained renewed attention online, with many experts noting how central the Strait of Hormuz remains to global energy markets.

Amid a global oil crisis following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered by the Iran war, a social media post written by US President Donald Trump more than a decade ago has resurfaced online after the recent escalation in the Middle East disrupted global energy markets.

The post, written in 2011, predicted that oil prices could surge dramatically if Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes for energy.

“Once Iran has nuclear weapons, they will shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Oil will be over USD300 a barrel," Trump wrote at the time.

The message has circulated widely again in recent days as tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel have pushed oil prices sharply higher.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. It is one of the most important choke points in global energy trade.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, about one fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the strait every day.

Oil supplies disrupted

Since the current conflict began, shipping through the passage has been severely disrupted. Experts estimate that roughly 18 million barrels of oil that normally move through the strait each day are now blocked or delayed.

The supply shock has pushed oil prices sharply higher. Brent Crude recently climbed past USD100 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has been trading close to that level.

Energy experts say the closure of the strait, even temporarily, can have a dramatic effect on global oil prices because so much supply flows through such a narrow route.

Major oil exporters affected

Several large oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rely on the waterway to ship crude and liquefied natural gas to global markets.

According to experts, prolonged disruption could push prices even higher, depending on how long the crisis continues and whether alternative supply routes can compensate for the lost shipments.

Focus on Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s decade-old prediction has therefore gained renewed attention online, with many observers noting how central the Strait of Hormuz remains to global energy markets. For now, oil prices remain far below the USD300 per barrel level mentioned in the post. 

News world ‘Oil Will Be $300 A Barrel’: Trump’s 2011 Hormuz Shut Down Prediction Resurfaces Amid Iran War

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