When Would Oil Exports Resume If US-Iran Ceasefire Takes Place? Iranian Minister Shares Update

Last Updated:April 12, 2026, 17:54 IST

Iran's Deputy Minister of Oil shared an update after the failure of talks with the US in Islamabad, which has raised concerns over global energy prices and damage to shipping.

As US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed to yield a breakthrough in the war in West Asia, there has been widespread concern over the resumption of oil exports in the Gulf region. Iran has shared a timeline as it works to recover from a wave of US-Israeli strikes on ​energy infrastructure.

Iran’s Deputy ​Minister of Oil Mohammad Sadeq Azimifar said Tehran expects to restore most ​damaged refining and ddistribution facilities to 70–80% of their pre-attack ​capacity within one ​to two months.

He told the Student News Network that repair work had begun ​and ​that ⁠part of the Lavan refinery ​is expected to ​resume ⁠operations within about 10 days, with ⁠other ​units coming ​back online gradually.

His remarks came after the talks between the US and Iran ended without any agreement in Iran. US Vice President JD Vance clearly stated that no deal was reached and the US delegation is returning without an agreement.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said his negotiating team “put forward constructive initiatives but ultimately the other side was unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations".

Oil Exports In Other Countries

The failure of the talks was expected to heighten concerns that a return to hostilities would push global energy prices higher and further damage shipping and oil and gas facilities in the Gulf.

Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil Company said the country could restore 3.4 million barrels per day within a week, provided a ceasefire is announced with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has suffered the biggest drop in oil revenue as a result of the effective closure of the Strait, according to a Reuters report.

However, the second biggest crude producer among OPEC countries can quickly restore output to levels before US-Israeli attacks on Iran if a ceasefire is announced shortly. Bassem Abdul Karim, the head of Basra, said Iran has so far only provided verbal guarantees on allowing Iraqi tankers to transit the strait.

He said production from Iraq’s southern oilfields was currently around 900,000 barrels per day – down by nearly 80% from pre-war levels – but if the war ends and safe passage through the Strait is guaranteed, exports could reach 3.4 million bpd within a week.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry on Sunday said its key East-West oil pipeline was back in service after being damaged in earlier strikes. The ministry said production at the Manifa oilfield, located off the Saudi east coast, had also been restored to full capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day after suffering damage in attacks.

Pre-War Oil Exports

Before the Iran war began, oil exports from the Gulf formed the backbone of the global energy system. Iraq’s oil fields supplied 4.3 million bpd, largely from its southern Basra terminals. Iran’s exports were roughly around 2 million bpd, much of it shipped via Kharg Island, its primary export terminal.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, supplied over 6 million bpd before the war. However, Iran’s attacks on a pumping station for the East-West pipeline had reduced daily output by 700,000 bpd.

Meanwhile, Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, said it was lifting some restrictions on Gulf shipping. Under the updated directive, all vessels can now operate within designated time windows, primarily between morning and evening hours, ensuring controlled yet steady maritime movement. Qatar exported roughly 77-80 million tonnes of LNG every year before the war began.

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